Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.

HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



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