Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES
WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER HIGH/ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS MORNING WITH A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. H85
TEMPERATURES WARM BY A 1C TO 2C IN THE WEST TODAY...AND COOL BY
AROUND 2C IN THE EAST CENTRAL. THUS EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S WEST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 80S EXTENDING FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE FIRST AREA
IS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM...SREF...AND
GFS PAINT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. A NARROW 300MB 70KT
JET NOSING INTO EASTERN MONTANA ATOP A SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL...GFS...AND NAM DO NOT
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND AREA OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT IS OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WHICH MAY EXTEND INTO TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. HERE
TOO...AN 80KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS RESIDING EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AREA DRY AND
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS. ELSEWHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. IT IS A
PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE WAVES WILL BE
KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED THE PERIOD
WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS NOT
REALISTIC. POPS ARE RATHER HIGH FOR A THREE TO FIVE DAY FORECAST
REFLECTING MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IS HIGH.

THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM


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