Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160933
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A mild day today, with light snow possible tonight into Saturday
morning west and south central highlight the short term forecast.

A Wind Chill Advisory with dangerous wind chills to around -30
will continue across the Turtle Mountains area this morning.
Thereafter, cold surface high pressure will weaken across the
Northern Plains and propagate east into the Mississippi Valley.
Thus, a relatively mild mid February day is expected across
western and central North Dakota with favorable southwesterly
surface winds. Widespread highs in the lower 30s are favored by a
consensus of the rapidly updating suites through their 06 UTC
iterations.

For late tonight into Saturday morning, there is a chance of snow
across western into south central North Dakota as a series of
impulses rapidly propagate across the Northern Plains. Steep mid
level lapse rates may support somewhat of a convective nature to
the snow showers. While accumulations on the whole should remain
below one inch, a few locations given the possible convective
nature of the snow could see 1 to 2 inches in fairly narrow
zones.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Widespread accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday with
dangerous wind chills to follow highlight the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC and incoming 06 UTC global suites continue to favor
widespread accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday as a
potent shortwave coming onshore to the Pacific Northwest Saturday
morning rapidly propagates east. This wave should be sampled to a
greater extent by the Alaskan upper air sites this morning, and
may help to increase confidence in the forecast track. That said,
there is still as much as a 80 mile difference in the spread of
the greatest snowfall axis within the global suites. At this time,
the greatest snowfall amounts are favored between US Highway 2
and I-94 Saturday night into Sunday morning. Accumulations in
excess of 3 inches are favored in a band of moderate to at times
heavy snow aided by strong frontogenesis and dendritic omega as
analyzed via the cross-hair technique. Given the spread that
remains in the forecast track in a banded event, the axis and
magnitude of the greatest snowfall totals remain uncertain at this
point. It should be noted that a loss of ice crystals in the
column south of I-94 will reduce snowfall amounts for these
locations with a glaze of ice not out of the question in freezing
drizzle.

Arctic high pressure is expected to build across western and
central North Dakota Monday and Tuesday. A period of dangerous
wind chills is expected Sunday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Surface high pressure will keep winds light and skies generally
clear for the first part of the forecast period. A warm front will
drift across the state from west to east Friday afternoon. This
boundary will bring in high ceilings and breezy winds from the
southwest. Highest winds will likely be seen over KMOT and KDIK. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the period. Light snow and
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible west and south central late
Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ005-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...ZH/PA



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