Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK.

A SMALL AREA OF -TSRA EAST OF BILLINGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS...IN MANITOBA INTO SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS...IFR CEILINGS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA WAS MOVING WEST AND
COULD IMPACT THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST
SEEING TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TOO MUCH THERE AS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - BOWMAN AND HETTINGER
AND AMIDON AREAS - WAS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ENDING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KFAR TO NEAR KMOT IS
FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON NORTH DAKOTA
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM




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