Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 180551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

HAVE DROPPED POPS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WILL ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE HERE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...POISED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
THE 00 UTC NAM...LATEST HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS WEAK CONVECTION
COULD HOLD TOGETHER PAST MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE NORTHWEST PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA FOR NOW AS COLD FRONT
REMAINS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO CUT THIS BACK IF NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

REMOVED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PIERCE...SHERIDAN AND EMMONS. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT POPS WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

REMOVED HETTINGER...ADAMS...GRANT...MORTON...MERCER AND OLIVER
COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463. SEE THE RECENTLY
ISSUED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 FOR DETAILS ON EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH 0045 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 VALID THROUGH
10 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SEVERE CONVECTION WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL...IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC THINKING FOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION #1563 FOR DETAILS. IN GENERAL...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL FILL IN ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
US HIGHWAY 85 AS OF 20 UTC...AS THE 17 AND INCOMING 18 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS SHOW LITTLE BETWEEN THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN OPPOSITION TO THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW
AND NMM AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS BY 21-00 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN POTENTIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 03 UTC. NON-
SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNSET...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...BEST
CHANCES EAST...WILL LINGER GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTING INTO MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SUPPORTS A RATHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
06 UTC TAF PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THUNDER WILL BE AT KBIS AND KJMS...THUS THESE ARE THE ONLY TAFS WITH
A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. DID MENTION A VCSH AT KMOT AND
KDIK. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LOW LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MENTIONED A SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD
LAYER MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH/JPM




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