Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291949
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
249 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers tonight into Friday morning west
into the north central highlights the short term forecast.

The 12 UTC global and the high resolution rapidly updating suites
through 17 UTC are in agreement on a shortwave across Wyoming
this afternoon propagating northeast tonight into western North
Dakota. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast with this wave
across the west and north central tonight into Friday morning.
There is a small chance of a thunderstorm with steep mid level
lapse rates, however, not much lightning has been observed with
this wave thus far across Wyoming this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Increasing precipitation potential early to mid next week
highlights the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in general agreement on an upper
level low coming onshore to northern California or Oregon Sunday
potentially propagating into the Central or Northern Plains
Tuesday into Thursday. While there is a spread amongst the
guidance suite in the track of the low, the feature itself is
favored. This system will have to be monitored for potential
widespread precipitation including the slight chance for a few
snowflakes mixing in on the back side of the low Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Prior to the arrival of the low Sunday
into Monday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for the 18 UTC TAF cycle across
western and central North Dakota. Isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm are possible across western North Dakota tonight into
Friday morning. Low level wind shear is also possible across much
of the area tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA



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