Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240642
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Increased snow chances over my far south central and southeast
early this morning where radar is indicating light to moderate
snowfall. High res models maintain this band of snow for another
1-2 hours before forcing aloft moves east resulting in diminishing
coverage and intensities. Cloud cover once again keeping
temperatures mild so increased overnight lows a few degrees. No
other major update for tonight.

Models have continued their southward trend for the northern
extent of snowfall associated with a winter storm impacted areas
to our south tomorrow. This led me to decrease POPs for Tuesday
over my southern counties.


UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

For the late evening update we raised pops along the far southern
tier counties this evening. However latest 00z global model runs
as well as latest iterations of mesoscale models continue to keep
majority of qpf confined to the far southern tier counties.
Utilized a blend of latest consensus mesoscale model run with
current observations and previous forecast pops. This bumped pops
up a bit through the early morning hours but into Tuesday morning
trended lower overall.

We also added some fog to the far southwest where latest
observations and weather cameras indicated areas of fog. With
light surface flow expect areas of fog to linger into Tuesday
morning across the southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

No significant changes to the early evening update. Weak pressure
pattern over the area with stronger low pressure to our north and
south. Thus we continue with cloudy skies tonight. Light snow is
expected to be confined to mainly the west this evening, then the
southwest and south central late this evening and into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northern Utah with
secondary low deepening over northeast Colorado. Upper level
analysis places broad trough over the western United States with
compact low spinning down the west coast and strong wave pushing
through the central Rockies. Over our area some fog continues to
linger over far southwestern locations...while a little snow is
trying to push into south central North Dakota where a weak wave
lifting ahead of the main system is noted.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight...initial wave
producing snow over the south central will continue to slide
easterly. In the meantime...aforementioned secondary surface low
deepens and slides into the central plains as upper low
affiliated with aforementioned strong wave closes off over
Colorado. Widespread snow will develop overnight over South
Dakota with us on the northern fringes. Models have backed off
some on snow amount in our area and pulled the northern extent
south a bit. Therefore...have trimmed back on chances/snow
amounts.

On Tuesday...upper low slides along and near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. As mentioned before...the brunt of the
snow will remain over South Dakota with some working in along our
southern tier. Total accumulations of possibly a couple of inches
are expected near the South Dakota border...lesser amounts as you
go north. Secondary bout of light snow may spread across the area
from north to south later in the day and overnight as a weaker
upper low closes off over the southern Provinces and lifts
northeast and modestly cooler air pushes in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 233 PM CST Mon
Jan 23 2017

A little snow may linger into Wednesday with dry conditions then
expected for the remainder of the week going into the weekend. A
cooler airmass settles into the area for mid-week with highs in
the teens over most locations...with a gradual warm-up expected to
end the week going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Widespread MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings will remain over west
and central North Dakota through the 06Z TAF period. Area of snow
over southern ND early this morning expected to remain well south
of KDIK-KBIS. KJMS may see a period of -SHSN, though with little
if any impact to visibilities.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



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