Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 172351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





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