Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
155 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The forecast remains on track and blended to observed trends
through 18 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Low level wrap around stratus will continue to clear through the
day across western and central North Dakota. No changes required
other than to blend to observed trends through 15 UTC.

Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Wrap around moisture and stratus continues to move south and east
through the Northern Plains. Inherited forecast has this well
handled. Did expand slight chance pops west across my northern
counties with KMOT reporting -ra last two observations.

Stratus should continue to move east this morning, with daytime
cu development likely keeping the sky sct-bkn.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Cool temperatures with decreasing clouds highlight the short term

Latest water vapor imagery shows the persistent upper low over
southeast Manitoba early this morning, with a couple of shortwaves
rotating into the trough axis, which is stretched out from
northeast ND to southwest ND. 850mb pocket of cold air +6C now
moving into the base of the trough. Isolated morning rain showers
will be confined to the Turtle Mountains with drier conditions
developing there after. The fog/stratus loop and surface
observations indicate low clouds covering all of western and
central ND, except the far southern James River Valley, but this
will fill in shortly. For timing in the erosion of the clouds
have followed the BUFKIT soundings. It appears that although
cloud bases lift this morning, enough low level moisture remains
for a mostly cloudy sky gradually giving way to partly cloudy
conditions during the afternoon. Thus a gradual decrease in
clouds from west to east seems the most likely scenario. 850mb
temperatures warm slightly today behind the cold pocket, however
the previous trend of highs around 70 continue and remains on
track. Expect a partly cloudy sky tonight ahead of another
advancing shortwave which will begin to impact the area with
precipitation after 12z Friday. Lows tonight will be in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

An upper trough within the northern stream currently located over
central Alberta is moving southeast with time. This will phase
with a shortwave ejecting out from the Great Basin via the
southern branch Friday through Friday night. In doing so, chances
for showers and thunderstorms return during this time period. SPC
indicates the Marginal Severe Thunderstorm risk will remain in
South Dakota, with General/non-severe thunderstorms expected for
western and central ND.

Progressive pattern takes control for the rest of the extended
period with timing of shortwaves and precipitation somewhat
difficult. The upper trough shifts east Saturday afternoon with a
transitory ridge quickly moving through Saturday evening. The GFS
hints at isolated night time showers/thunderstorms south central
Saturday night associated with a low level jet and advancing mid
level shortwave. The ECMWF is dry. Multiple weak shortwaves
embedded within a quasi zonal flow will be the main theme through
next week. Nothing too organized at this time but do expect some
mention of precipitation almost on a daily basis Monday through
Friday. Warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s north to
mid 80s south.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR cumulus and stratocumulus are expected across western and
central North Dakota through sunset. VFR conditions thereafter for
the 18 UTC TAF cycle.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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