Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FNUS73 KBIS 171513
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Magpie Wildfire...DNR
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1013 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1100 MDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front pushed through the area early this morning.
Behind this front, winds will generally come from the northwest
through the afternoon, with a gradual shift to the north and
northeast overnight. Winds will generally range from 10 to 15 mph
through the afternoon with gusts around 20 mph. Minimum relative
humidities should bottom out to around 20 percent late in the
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 80s.

Tonight, there will be a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm. If one of these storms does approach the site, winds
may become briefly gusty and erratic. Otherwise the north to
northeasterly winds overnight will be relatively light, ranging
from 4 to 10 mph.

There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday,
which again, could cause gusty and erratic winds if they approach
the incident site.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3600-5400 ft AGL increasing to 5200-5900 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 (low) to (moderate).

TIME (MDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........30  23  13  13  13  13
CWR............. 0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%). 0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL............. 1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  80  82  84  86  87
RH..............37  33  29  26  24  22
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  11  11  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  20  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  18  15  12  8   8
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds up to 9 mph becoming light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......2600-4400 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east 5 to 7
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (900-31100 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........13  17  21  29  33  39  50  56  59  66  69  69
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............87  86  82  77  73  70  68  67  65  64  62  59
RH..............21  21  25  31  35  39  40  42  45  48  54  60
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 3.7 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100031  15  10  6   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing to 2 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east up to 7 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......200-1400 ft AGL increasing to 10000-10300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest 6 to
                    8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (800-50300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (37500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 (moderate) to (high).

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........68        60        51        53
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        20        20
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............58        67        76        81
RH..............67        56        40        34
20 FT wind......E 4G5     E 6       SE 7G10   E 6
Mix hgt (ft)....200       2600      6600      9500
Transport wind..E 7       E 5       NE 8      N 7
Haines index....6         5         6         6
SDspl kt-ft/10001         18        41        50

$$
Forecaster...HARGROVE
Requested by...Steve Grove
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1712879.0/BIS
.EMAIL steve.grove@state.mn.us



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