000
FNUS73 KBIS 241040
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Johnson WPA...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
540 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather and mild temperatures are expected at the burn site
today, with cloud cover increasing this afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity will drop to around 23 percent with south winds around 10
mph, shifting to south-southeasterly by late afternoon. A pattern shift
begins Thursday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing
Thursday evening and night in the burn scar area. Winds will also
become strong Thursday afternoon, with gusts approaching 35 mph, but
minimum relative humidity will increase to around 37 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (93900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   11  26  46  65  72  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  55  58  61  63  64  65  66
RH..............42  36  28  25  23  23  23  23
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..11  9   9   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  13  12  13  13  14  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.9 4.7 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  15  15  14  15  14
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..17  38  61  79  85  82  94  87

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (93100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........69     23     9      7      9      15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............64     61     53     49     47     47
RH..............25     32     42     51     57     64
20 ft wind......S 11   SE 10  SE 11  S 13   S 14   S 15
20 ft wind gust.14     15     19     26     26     26
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   800    500    600    500    600
Transport wind..S 15   S 13   SE 16  S 21   S 21   S 21
Haines index....5      5      5      4      3      4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..93     9      7      10     9      11

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (101500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (107100
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........11           23           49
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............45           56           71
RH..............65           52           38
20 FT wind......S 14G22      S 17G24      S 19G27
Mix hgt (ft)....700          1600         3800
Transport wind..S 21         S 21         S 26
Haines index....4            4            4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..12           29           88

$$
Forecaster...JONES
Requested by...Dustin Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412143.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov