Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FNUS73 KBIS 221451
FWSBIS

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLISTON CHEM PLANT FIRE...NDDES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 CDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST
EAST OF THE WILLISTON AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS UNDER 10 MPH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS THE MOST LIKELY WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
WOULD BE FROM THE EAST AT 4 TO 7 MPH.

THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY
NOON CDT...AND BREAK BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM CDT ALLOWING FOR
BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION.

A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 PM CDT AND
7 PM CDT TODAY (TUESDAY).

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.
RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND................LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST UP TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
LAL.................1 INCREASING TO 2 IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........69  35  35  35  35  35  35  35  35  35
WEATHER COV.....                            SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                            RW  RW  RW
TEMP............65  69  72  75  78  79  80  81  81  81
RH..............87  76  68  60  52  49  47  44  42  42
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..0   4   4   4   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.    5   5   5               10  10  10
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 61.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND................EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........35     35     47     43     43     43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............80     75     70     67     65     63
RH..............44     54     66     75     81     84
20 FT WIND......E 9    E 9    E 9    SE 9   SE 9   E 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....6      6      6      6      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 87.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND................SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO
                    20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
LAL.................2.
CWR.................14 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...VINING
REQUESTED BY...SEAN M  JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140722.WILLI.01/BIS






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