Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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366 FXUS64 KBMX 290338 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1038 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024 The overnight forecast is on track across Central Alabama. Diurnally driven showers have diminished with clear skies prevailing across the area. High clouds from convection well to our west will spread into the area overnight, but should have little impact on sensible weather. Temperatures will cool into the upper 50s east to lower 60s west. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024 A few very light showers showing up on radar sweeps early this afternoon, and will continue to keep small POPs (20% or less) through the rest of the afternoon to account for these. Otherwise, the short term part of the forecast still mostly just involves watching the action to our west. The ongoing shower activity is likely diurnally enhanced, so it should diminish around sunset. Beyond that, the overnight portion of the forecast becomes one of winds (generally 5-10 mph) and clouds (less than 50 percent coverage). Ultimately, mid level troughing to our west will help to push a surface cold front into our area on Monday. The bulk of the rain should hold off until after noon. But it does appear that by the time we get to 4 pm or so, an area of showers and storms should be moving into our western counties. Best placement of POPs tomorrow afternoon does rely a lot on what transpires to our west this evening and tonight. Fortunately for us, the best forcing will still be well back to the west and lifting out to our north. So, while there`s enough instability to result in some thunderstorms, we still don`t think the parameters are quite there for severe convection. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024 A wide variety of solutions provided by models for the system impacting Alabama Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Majority of models do show a weakening line of convection approaching west Alabama Monday afternoon, but timing varies from early afternoon to early evening. Now that we are in the 24-36 hour time range, will give more weight or confidence to the CAMS and high-res models. These models show the line reaching the MS/AL state line by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of the northern portion of the line towards late afternoon as the low level jet decreases. There may be a window of 3-4 hours in the early evening with minimal coverage of convection over west Alabama, then additional convection develops over MS as the mid level trof axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates. The better coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama Monday night as mid-level lapse rates increase and a low level jet develops. Might see some stronger storms Monday night as MUCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg. The activity will shift into east Alabama Tuesday morning with the rain ending across east Alabama by late afternoon. For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridging will take place over Alabama with lower rain chances and warmer daytime temperatures. By the end of the week, an upper trof will pass to the north of Alabama, and rain chances will increase over central Alabama. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024 VFR conditions are ongoing this evening, with a mix of scattered to broken mid level clouds. Clouds will diminish through the evening, with increasing mid and high level clouds again Monday. Southeasterly winds will remain at 4-7kts overnight. Winds will make a slight turn to the south Monday, and increase to 8-12kts. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon, mainly across the west. With increasing coverage through the afternoon, will include a PROB30 at TCL after 21Z. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across west Alabama Monday afternoon, spreading eastward Monday night and into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 83 60 79 / 0 10 60 70 Anniston 59 82 62 80 / 0 10 60 60 Birmingham 62 83 63 81 / 0 20 60 50 Tuscaloosa 62 83 62 82 / 0 40 60 40 Calera 62 82 63 80 / 0 20 60 50 Auburn 61 81 63 79 / 0 10 20 40 Montgomery 61 84 63 83 / 0 10 20 50 Troy 60 84 63 83 / 0 10 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...14