000
FXUS64 KBMX 160220
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
920 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Surface high pressure remains centered southeast of the area. This
has allowed a south southwest flow the past few days. The 00z BMX
Raob has the overall atmosphere still dry. A few low clouds and
patchy fog may develop from near Demopolis to Montgomery to Troy
around sunrise, but if this does occur, it will be short lived.
Otherwise, lows generally in the 50s. High cloudiness drifts over
central Alabama on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Tonight.

The mid-level longwave ridge axis will move east over the area
tonight while a few weak shortwaves move northeast over the Mid-
South Region ahead of the potent upper low that will move over the
Colorado Front Range overnight. Surface high pressure will become
centered further east off the Southeast Atlantic Coast while
surface low pressure consolidates and deepens over Nebraska.

Expect skies to range from mostly clear southeast and far east to
partly cloudy west and northwest. Some patchy fog will be
possible across the far southwest before sunrise on Tuesday.
Surface winds will be light from the southwest at 2-4 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 50s far east and far
southeast to around 60 far west.

Tuesday.

Mid-level ridging will move east of the state on Tuesday while
the potent closed low moves northeast over Nebraska. A few
shortwave disturbances will move northeast over the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley Regions to our north and northwest. Surface high
pressure will remain centered offshore of the Southeast Atlantic
Coast while strong low pressure will move from the North-Central
Plains into the Midwest Region.

Look for skies to range from partly cloudy southeast to mostly
cloudy at times across the north and west due to weak shortwaves
passing to our northwest. Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12
mph. High temperatures will range from the low 80s northwest and
in the higher elevations east to the mid 80s far south and
southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Not a lot of change implemented to the long-term forecast. We`re
certainly in a warmer period of the year, so we`ll watch for
fronts and/or disturbances in the region that would support
showers and thunderstorms. We`ll get an opportunity on Wednesday,
with additional rain/storm chances that appear are coming together
this weekend. Wednesday`s convection appears to be somewhat
fragmented along a weakening front with best forcing/dynamics
aloft lifting well north of our area. Instability is also
somewhat marginal, so we have no concerns for severe weather at
this time.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
trailing cold front approaches from the northwest. As the southern
end of the front loses upper-level support, the front should
weaken and decrease in forward speed. The southern extent of rain
chances may be limited to the northern half of the forecast area
on Wednesday.

There appears to be a break in the rain chances for Thursday
before another upper-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase on Friday as a front approaches from the
northwest. This activity may linger into Saturday, but model
consistency and agreement is rather poor as we wait on the kicker
trough that should move through Sunday into next Monday.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 900 PM CDT MON APR 15 2024

Mainly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. The is a possibility that
some low clouds and fog may develop around sunrise at MGM/TOI.
Added a tempo mention for a few hours down to IFR.. Otherwise,
only high clouds drift through the skies. Winds will be light/calm
overnight and become 5-10kts by Tuesday afternoon with a few gusts
15-20kts.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue Tuesday with minimum RH values
25-35% east of I-65, increasing to 40-50% west of I-65. 20 ft
winds will be southerly at 5-10 mph with gusts up to ~20 mph
tomorrow afternoon. Some rain chances move into the area on
Wednesday, though forecast amounts are light and mainly for areas
along and north of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  83  61  78 /   0   0  10  40
Anniston    56  84  60  79 /   0   0  10  30
Birmingham  59  83  63  79 /   0   0  10  40
Tuscaloosa  59  82  63  80 /   0   0  10  40
Calera      57  82  61  79 /   0   0  10  30
Auburn      56  83  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  56  84  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        55  85  60  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...75