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000
FXUS65 KBOU 161845
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1245 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds to 65 mph over the eastern plains today.

- Cooler, breezy and unsettled through Saturday with precipitation
  off and on. The best chances will be Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning and again Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Drier and somewhat warmer for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The wrap around precipitation on the back side of the upper
closed low has recently exited the CWA to the east and southeast.
There is some weak convection coming down in the northwesterly
flow, mainly over the mountains and a tad on the eastern plains.
Nothing significant. Strong northwesterly winds continue over
most of the plains at this time with gusts in the 50-60 mph range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 414 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper low is chugging towards the Kansas border at this hour,
about as expected. The precip pattern is just a bit more complex,
with some showers/storms rotating back on the north side of the
low into eastern border areas. That will slide eastward over the
next few hours. Meanwhile, the main precip band has been producing
showers over the northern mountains much of the night, and that`s
starting to spread eastward now behind the upper low. The strong
northwest winds will pick up with the showers, but there will be a
couple of hours of rain at the front of the band, with lighter
precip falling into the drying air at the back. This should all be
out of Denver by mid morning, and this band will likely be
diminishing as the drier air undercuts it on the plains later this
morning. The drying/subsidence should be pretty sharp with
clearing skies this afternoon. That will allow temperatures to
warm up fairly well, unusual for the rear of a vigorous low but
this one wasn`t connected to deeper cold air on the back side.

Current highlights look about right, with most of the heavy
mountain snow this morning. Fort Collins, Greeley, eastern
Adams/Arapahoe counties still close to high wind criteria with
less further west. Hopefully enough rain to wet the dirt a bit,
but we could have a little blowing dust eventually. The winds will
likely be decreasing the last couple hours of the afternoon.

We cooled tonight`s lows in the mountains just a little as it
should be clear with light winds for at least the first half of
the night. There will be clouds moving in after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

There`s general consensus among ensemble guidance for a more
unsettled weather pattern in place later Wednesday through at least
the first half of the weekend. Wednesday, temperatures aloft warm
slightly which should promote highs a few degrees warmer than
Tuesday. An upper level shortwave trough drops across the area
Wednesday night. Jet placement will favor increasing ascent and a
cold front ahead of it. The front drops south across northeast
Colorado in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. If it comes
on the earlier end, this would keep highs a bit cooler. As the wave
approaches, moisture increases across the high country with
sufficient lapse rates. This will develop showers across the region
with higher chances (40-60%) across the northern mountains(snow) and
northern border areas(rain). There is marginal instability in place
in the mentioned areas to bring some convective showers or a rumble
of thunder.

Overnight into Thursday morning, temperatures cool down towards the
freezing mark across the lower elevations. Any showers around will
mix in with snow toward sunrise in those areas. Overall, coverage
will be lower and limited to the northern mountains and border. It
will be cooler Thursday in the post-front airmass with NE winds.
There may be a brief lull before the next weak wave moves through
Friday bringing down shower chances. Above normal moisture remains
in place over Colorado in the fairly zonal flow aloft on Friday and
another weak wave will bringing another chance for showers. Right
now, there is still uncertainty in the coverage of showers and
chances across the plains given the lower confidence in the
strength/moisture associated with this second wave.  Snow
accumulation will be on the light side in some pockets of moderate
in higher northern mountains.

Later Saturday, conditions begin to gradually dry out as a weak
ridge moves in from the west. This will keep the plains dry with
afternoon snow showers in the mountains through early next week.
With ridging aloft, temperatures rebound Sunday and early next week
into the 60s across the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1221 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Northwesterly winds gusts in the 30-36 knots range should
continue at DIA this afternoon. Models show winds decreasing
around 00Z with weak drainage patterns expected by 04Z this
evening. Ceiling should be in the SCT-BKN065-080 range this
afternoon until about 00Z. Then there shouldn`t be any ceiling
issues until the cold front, upslope and Stratus move in around
00-03Z Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Winds will be quite strong today, but humidities will be higher.
There will be some drying in the afternoon bringing minimum
humidities down in the 20-30% range.

Cooler and unsettled pattern is expected through at least the first
half of the weekend. This will bring periods of mountain snow and
mainly rain showers on the plains. It will be warm/dry Wednesday and
marginally breezy which may bring a period of elevated to spotty
critical conditions mainly for southern Lincoln County before the
front moves through. Relative humidity values stay elevated
Thursday through the weekend in most spots(>30%) limiting fire
weather conditions.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ033-
034.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ038-042-044-
046>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........RJK
SHORT TERM.....Gimmestad
LONG TERM......Mensch
AVIATION.......RJK
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad/Mensch