Text Products for ESF Issued by BOX

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1038 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1015 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

The winter/spring freshwater flood potential through mid March is near
normal across eastern Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts and is below normal elsewhere in southern New England.

For a graphical depiction of this outlook, go to:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This outlook is based on current and forecast conditions including
temperatures, precipitation, snow cover, snow water content, river
flows, soil moisture, and ice coverage.

...RECENT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...

February was dry and mild in southern New England with below average
precipitation and above average temperatures.

Precipitation for the month only totaled 0.50 to 1 inch across
northern Massachusetts while 1 to 2.50 inches fell farther south
in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. These totals
were 1 to 3 inches below normal but locations from Boston to the
Merrimack Valley saw departures of 3.5 inches below normal.

Temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal in February but
locations near the Berkshires saw departures of 3 to 5 degrees above
normal for the month.


...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER CONTENT...

The ground is bare across southern New England. The only locations
reporting snow on the ground were found at elevations above 1000 feet
in the Berkshires where up to 6 inches of snow was found in shaded
areas. This sparse snowpack contains at most an inch or two of water.

Both snow depths and water equivalents are well below normal for late
February. In fact, the extent and depth of the snowpack seems to be
about a month ahead of schedule and would be more typical of late March
or early April.


...SOIL MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...

The dry weather pattern this month allowed the previously wet conditions
to return closer to normal.

Soil moisture was near normal across most of southern New England
and abnormally wet conditions were confined to Connecticut. Similarly,
ground water levels were near to above normal but not as high as they
were in January when many were setting all time monthly highs. River
and stream flows were near to above normal and were highest across
coastal southern New England due to recent rainfall.


...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

Through the middle of March, odds strongly favor above average
temperatures and to a lesser degree above average precipitation.
The overall weather pattern is likely to become more active but mild,
bringing more chances for rain versus snow.


...SUMMARY...

The winter/spring freshwater flood potential is near normal across
eastern Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts
and is below normal elsewhere in southern New England.

Despite near to above normal soil moisture, river and stream flows, and
groundwater levels the lack of a snowpack across most of southern New
England supports a below normal potential for freshwater flooding
through the middle of March. However, these indices are above normal
in Connecticut, most of Rhode Island, and in southeast Massachusetts
due to recent rain and snow, which leads to a freshwater flood outlook
which is near normal through mid March.

As a reminder, flooding rain can occur any time during the year, even
when the flood outlook is below normal. The Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook can provide a heads-up for excessive rainfall over the next five
days: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued on
Thursday, March 14th.


$$

JD/AED
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
