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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250001
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
801 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move into the area this evening with isolated
showers possible. Fair Thursday and Friday, except for a slight
chance of a shower over western areas Friday afternoon. Fair
Saturday through Monday with a warming trend. A cold front is
expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cold front remains to the northwest of the area and will
continue to move through overnight. Showers currently moving
across the northern portion of the forecast area associated with
a surface trough, although moisture remains fairly limited with
PWATs around an inch. HiRes guidance continues to support
showers associated with this surface trough developing across
the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area,
shifting east and diminishing around or shortly after midnight
as some drier air moves in aloft. The front will still be near
the area by Thursday morning so cold advection will be limited.
As a result, low temperatures will only fall to the low to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night: Upper trough continues to slowly
slide away from the region as upper ridging begins to build
overnight. At the surface, high pressure begins to wedge in from
the north, pushing a frontal boundary to the south and west.
Latest guidance continues to indicate that this boundary remains
too far away from the area to spark any shower activity,
keeping the area dry. Afternoon highs are forecast to be similar
to slightly lower than today as northwest flow aloft will aid
in some downsloping. Overnight temps remain on the mild side as
well.

Friday and Friday night: Upper ridging is expected to continue
building over the region on Friday. However, a weak shortwave
embedded within the ridge is forecast to move through the area.
Additionally, weak surface convergence is possible as the
frontal boundary wavers through the day. More models are picking
up on the chance for rainfall during the afternoon due to these
features. With the weak shortwave and surface convergence, only
expecting isolated showers to develop and have expanded a
slight chance (~20%) of showers from the CSRA to the central
Midlands to account for this trend. Temperatures are forecast to
be somewhat cooler on Friday as cloud cover should be over the
area for much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Only minor changes have been noted in the guidance for the long
term period. Surface high pressure remains in control over the
area into the early part of next week. However, some models are
picking up on a disturbance moving around the high pressure and
bringing some precipitation into the forecast area for Sunday.
My confidence is low (~10%) that we`ll see any rain from this,
but will continue to monitor trends in the next few days.
Otherwise, a warming trend is anticipated into the early week
ahead. A system approaches the area midweek, bringing us the
next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions likely.

A weak cold front will move through the area this evening.
Considerable strato-cumulus and mid level clouds ahead of the
front. Showers should be limited ahead of the front due to dry
air and weak lift. In most model guidance, the bulk of showers
remain north and east of the terminals, so not expected any
restrictions. Expect west winds diminishing to less than 10 kts
becoming north behind the front. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots
and a few high based cumulus through Thursday afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$