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000
FXUS61 KCAR 222331
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
731 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area tonight, then moves southeast
Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday night, cross the
area Wednesday, then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday night.
High pressure will build across the region later Thursday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 pm update...
Ridge axis extends along coastal areas with sfc low over
southern Manitoba. Warm front lifting thru srn Canada this
evening with high pressure still in control over the area. Winds
will diminish with sunset for several hours and with clear skies
expect that temps will rapidly fall trough about midnight. Winds
back around to the south with temps leveling off remainder of
the overnight hours. Only minor tweaks to hrly temps and dwpts
with no other chgs needed with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
Gusty westerly winds will last through early this evening, then
diminish towards nightfall as the high moves overhead and the
atmosphere decouples. The cold air mass will remain in place
overnight, and overnight lows should be below freezing for most
of the forecast area.

However, early Tuesday morning, the high should move eastward,
bringing return flow from the south and rapidly warming
temperatures during the day. As the next front approaches from
the Great Lakes, the gradient will increase and winds will be
gusty again. With abundant sunshine and a warmer air mass,
temperatures are likely to rise into the upper 50s, and even
reach 60 or just above for locations farther inland. Along the
coast, the marine influence will overcome the warming, so temps
will remain a little cooler, near 50. More impacts from the
southerly return flow will be discussed in the fire weather
section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area Tuesday night, and cross
through the forecast area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be
cool due to prevailing cooler temperatures already in place, and
colder air will advect in behind the surface boundary as it
moves through the area. This will lead to precip initially
falling as rain during the day on Wednesday due to diurnal
heating ahead of the front, but quickly switching to all snow
behind the boundary as strong CAA builds in. Fortunately, the
combination of rapidly decreasing available moisture along with
warm ground temperatures at this point in the season, snow will
struggle to accumulate, and less than an inch of storm total
snow is anticipated for the majority of the forecast area,
outside of the highest terrain such as mountain peaks.

Lows Wednesday night behind the front will fall into the low to
mid 20s across the area with cold gusty winds, though winds
will gradually decrease through the night. For Thursday,
clearing skies and increasing solar angle will help temperatures
rebound back into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure builds into the area through the end of
the week, leading to drier conditions Friday through Saturday. A
cold front will cross the area as the upper level ridge begins
to shift east, bringing the next round of precipitation to the
area. This low will be quickly followed by the next open wave
pushing in from the Great Lakes region, lifting a warm front
through the area Monday into Monday night. The timing of these
features could be delayed pending the strength of the high
pressure on Saturday, as a blocking high pressure could delay
the incoming upper level trough.

Due to the southerly return flow taking place as the ridge of
high pressure slowly shifts east, plenty of warm air will be
able to advect into the area for this weekend, with highs
reaching into the upper 50s to lower 60s each day. These warmer
temperatures will lead to the next several systems being
primarily or even exclusively all rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Gusty westerly winds will diminish
within an hour of sunset with lgt/vrb conditions before winds
back around to the south after 06z tonight. Another round of
gusty south winds expected late morning and afternoon.

LLWS expected over Aroostook terminals between 07z-13z.

SHORT TERM:
Tues night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of rain. S
winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts.

Wed...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR across all terminals. Rain.
Rain will change to snow during the afternoon across northern
terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts, rapidly shifting NW behind the
front in the afternoon 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Wed night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR early, rapidly improving
towards VFR late. Snow tapering to snow showers, which will
linger longest in the north and east. NW winds 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 30 kts.

Thurs...VFR with clearing skies. NW winds 5 to 15 kts with
gusts up to around 25 kts early.

Thurs night through Sat...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds have decreased below 25kts over the waters this
afternoon and are expected to become almost calm overnight.
Tomorrow, gusty southerly winds will return, this time from the
south. Just a few gusts are expected above 25 kts at this point,
but if winds increase slightly, a small craft advisory may be
needed for tomorrow afternoon for the outer waters. Seas will
be 2 to 3 feet.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts on the coastal waters will hover around
the low to mid 20s Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could
lead to the need for an SCA. Winds will Wednesday into Wednesday
night as a cold front crosses the waters, with gusts
approaching gale force Wednesday night. Winds and seas will
likely fall back below SCA levels later Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday continues to be a concern with the increasing south
wind along with warmer temperatures. Although dewpoints will be
on the rise with southerly flow, the sunny conditions will also
bump temperatures and RHs will drop to near 30 percent for
inland locations in particular. The warmer temperatures, low
RHs, and gusty winds will make conditions more favorable for
fires to ignite and spread rapidly.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/LF
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/LF/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/LF/AStrauser
Fire Weather...LF