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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231330
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will track east into by
Quebec by Wednesday morning, with a trailing cold front settling
south of Lake Erie. High pressure will expand into the Great Lakes
Region behind it on Wednesday night and influence the weather into
Friday as it slowly moves off the New England Coast. A warm front
will lift north across the area Friday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 AM Update...
Still some light returns on radar this morning, but the lower
levels are still too dry for precip to reach the surface. PoPs
gradually increase throughout the day as the lower levels
moisten. No changes needed with this update besides making minor
adjustments to hourly temperatures this morning based on latest
observations.

Previous discussion...
Surface low pressure is located over Lake Superior this morning
with a trough extending south to another weak low in the lee of
the Rockies. Mid and upper level cloud has overspread the area
while low levels remain dry with dewpoints in the 20s and lower
30s this morning. Regional radars show an area of showers over
western lower Michigan and Lake Michigan where a low level jet
is focused. These are forecast to lift northeast this morning
with the trailing end of the line just barely reaching Lake
Erie. Moisture advection will be focused into Northwest Ohio
this morning and showers are expected to to fill in by early
afternoon as shortwave energy and a jet streak at 500mb arrives.
Farther east, it will take some time to moisten with dry air in
the low levels and good mixing in the lowest 4-5K feet. Winds
will be gusty as the surface pressure gradient tightens with
winds of 30-35 knots at 925mb. Look for winds to peak before the
rain arrives with southwest winds gusting to 30-35 mph, then
settling down closer to 20 mph with some boundary layer
stabilization. Several high resolution models have trended
towards a little slower arrival of the rain with potential for
some virga to start. With this in mind have slowed the eastward
progression just slightly but still have light rain reaching
Cleveland by 5-6 PM. One thing to watch today will be the amount
of thunderstorms that develop in northern Missouri which is the
source region for today`s moisture and could limit advection
into our area. Overall still think most areas will see rain
between this afternoon and evening as there is good forcing
ahead of an upper level trough deepening across the Great Lakes
Region. QPF amounts will be highest towards Toledo where almost
a half inch is possible with most of the remaining areas see
between 0.1-0.3 inch. Thunderstorms are not expected with little
to no instability and extensive cloud cover.

Rain will diminish from west to east as a mid-level dry slot wraps
in aloft. The actual cold front has slowed down and does not arrive
until Wednesday morning. We do get another push of mid-level wrap
around moisture between 06-12Z so expanded the coverage of pops a
little more for late tonight. In addition, raised the minimum
temperature forecast for tonight and lowered the high temperature
forecast for Wednesday. Highs will likely occur ahead of the front
and then fall through the afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday will
be cool with most areas in the mid 40s and wind chills making it
feel like the 30s, except for slightly warmer along the I-75
corridor. Given the slower frontal timing, clouds will hold on for
much of the day on Wednesday and could even see a few sprinkles or
light showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will largely feature quiet weather
with temperatures embarking on a robust warming trend that will
continue into the weekend. For Thursday, large scale subsidence
between a departing upper trough to the east/northeast and building
upper ridge to the west will result in surface high pressure and
mostly sunny / somewhat cool conditions. By Friday the surface ridge
will be shifting east as the upper ridge slides into the eastern
CONUS, allowing deep-layer south-southwest flow to develop. This
will cause temperatures and dew points to begin climbing on Friday.
Clouds will begin increasing through the day Friday, though for most
of the forecast area the day will still be dry. Showers (and perhaps
a bit of thunder) will spread in from the west as a warm front lifts
through ahead of low pressure lifting out of the Plains and into the
upper Midwest late Friday into Friday night. Not looking at a heavy
rain or severe weather threat with this activity late Friday. Fairly
decent confidence that most of the area will measure at least a bit
of rain late Friday or Friday night, so have high chance to likely
POPs (50-70%) in the forecast.

The other forecast challenge / potential impact during this forecast
period will be frost / freeze potential, especially Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. With 850mb temperatures dipping below 0C,
afternoon temperatures on Wednesday likely being held in the 40s,
and dew points falling well into the 20s by Wednesday night the
airmass will be quite conducive to frost / freeze conditions. High
pressure building in will cause winds to go light (to calm where
winds are able to decouple), though a slight gradient will persist
through most of the night so it may take until close to the pre-dawn
for some sites to see winds go light / variable. A potentially
larger wrinkle in the temperature forecast and frost potential will
be cloud cover. Large-scale subsidence and a rather dry airmass
advecting in will be attempting to clear out the clouds. However,
there are hints that a low-level trough axis associated with
sufficient 925-850mb moisture to maintain stratus may linger. Bumped
up clouds and increased lows just a bit across south-central
portions of our CWA where there appear to be higher odds for some
clouds to linger. Where skies can clear widespread frost is
expected, and still have lows generally in the upper 20s-lower 30s.
Have slightly warmer temperatures along the immediate lakeshore and
across our far south (from Mount Vernon-Canton) where the greatest
odds of clouds persisting may exist. A more marginal setup Thursday
night into early Friday as the gradient increases a bit behind the
departing high pressure. With a chilly and dry airmass remaining,
mostly clear skies, and relatively light winds have some frost in
away from the lake, especially from the Central Highlands points
east-northeast into PA. Forecast lows for Thursday night generally
range from the mid 30s to near 40, slightly warmer along the
lakeshore and colder in a few spots from far NE Ohio into PA. Highs
will still be a bit cool on Thursday, generally in the 50s to near
60. Highs should warm into the low to mid 70s for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warmer than average long term is in store as a ridge builds over
the eastern CONUS ahead of a trough and series of low pressure
tracking through the central US. Have shower (and perhaps thunder)
chances lingering into Saturday morning with an advancing warm
front, especially from far Northeast OH into Northwest PA.
Otherwise, it will be warm and perhaps somewhat humid and unstable
Saturday and Sunday afternoons, so maintain an assortment of low
POPs (generally 20-40%) through the rest of the weekend. However,
agreement seems to be increasing that any fronts and associated
stronger forcing will remain will to our west and northwest through
the weekend once the warm front clears on Saturday, so suspect the
flavor of the weekend will be mainly dry. Overall, POPs are a bit
lower than prior forecasts for the weekend and probably have
additional room to trend a bit lower. POPs increase on Monday as a
cold front looks to drift in from the west as low pressure lifts
through the upper Great Lakes. There may be enough forcing, shear,
and instability for some stronger storms with the cold front on
Monday, but that is well out there with minimal concern for anything
strong to severe beforehand over the weekend.

Highs will be well into the 70s to perhaps around 80 Saturday
through Monday, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Southwest
winds will be gusty at times, especially on Saturday when most
models have deep mixing into a 40-50 knot 850mb jet. Generally have
gusts of 30-35 MPH in the forecast each afternoon Saturday through
Monday, though there may be potential for some 40-45 MPH gusts,
especially across parts of Northwest and North Central OH Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions will generally be VFR through 18Z as clouds lower and
moisture increases across the region. Southwest winds will
ramp up through about 16Z as mixing heights increase with gusts
of 20-30 knots, tapping into a 40 knot low level jet overhead.
Gusts of 25-30 knots will be common until rain begins and helps
to stabilize the boundary layer. Rain will spread west to east
across the area beginning in Toledo around 16Z, CLE around 21Z,
and CAK around 23Z. Ceilings will lower as rain increases with
most terminals on the fringe of MVFR or VFR. Have included a
period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities where rain persists
longer and seems more favorable but lacking some confidence in
visibilities as this will tend to be a light rain. Thunderstorms
are not expected. The more persistent rain will end from west
to east between 00-06Z but showers may linger at eastern
terminals into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move south
into the area between 06-12Z with a wind shift to the northwest.
This will also bring lower ceilings with most sites down to IFR
by 12Z Wed. Northwest winds will be breezy again behind the
front on Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely through Wednesday with scattered
showers lingering across the snowbelt region. Non-VFR may
return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk southwest winds are expected today ahead of an approaching
cold front, with 15 to 25 knot sustained values with gusts to near
30 knots likely making it into the nearshore waters. Went ahead with
a Small Craft Advisory from Lake County OH points west. The core of
the low level jet will largely impact Cleveland points west, and
think sustained winds will reach 20 knots at times with gusts up to
30 knots in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Included Lake
County as the shape of the shoreline may support higher winds and
waves in the nearshore waters as far east as Fairport Harbor. In
collaboration with WFO Buffalo did not issue a Small Craft Advisory
farther east, though with sustained winds nearing 20 knots and gusts
likely 25-30 knots at times through this afternoon it will still be
blustery and can`t rule out a last minute expansion if observations
suggest winds are over-performing farther east. Waves of 3 to 6 feet
can be expected in the open waters today. Winds slacken enough this
evening to allow the advisories to come down. Winds flip north-
northwest early Wednesday behind a cold front and increase to 15-25
knots, especially between the Islands and Cleveland. Likely will
need some additional Small Craft Advisories for at least some of the
central nearshore waters for Wednesday.

High pressure brings generally tranquil marine conditions Wednesday
night through Friday. East-northeast winds increase briefly to 10-15
knots Thursday afternoon and evening which may build some chop.
Otherwise, winds turn southwest on Saturday behind a warm front.
Winds will be 15-25 knots at times this weekend, though will also be
mainly offshore and building larger waves into the open waters. That
said, with very warm air temperatures arriving for the weekend there
may be an increase in recreational traffic on the lake. The strong
offshore flow and cold waters (ranging from the upper 40s to mid
50s) could still pose some hazard to smaller craft or inexperienced
mariners, so we may need some small craft headlines this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ145>147.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sullivan