843
FXUS61 KCLE 011714
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
114 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue north across the area early today as
high pressure shifts slightly to the east. A weak cold front
will approach the area from the northwest tonight and stall out
across northern Ohio. This front will lift back north as a cold
front on Thursday. A cold front will cross the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM...The mid-deck this morning has mostly scattered out
early this afternoon with some scattered diurnal cu developing
out west ahead of an approaching cold front. Can`t rule out a
brief isolated shower/storm somewhere later this afternoon, but
chances appear limited given very dry air in the sfc-700 mb
layer.

Previous Discussion...
A fairly uneventful near term forecast is on tap through
Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the forecast area
this morning and behind the front, winds will increase out of
the southwest this afternoon and some mid-level clouds will
enter the region. Temperatures will continue their well above
normal trend with highs in the upper 70s for most. A weakening
cold front will enter from the northwest tonight and may keep
some scattered clouds across the region. Lows tonight will be on
par with low temperatures this morning. This front will settle
across the forecast area to start on Thursday. Areas north of
the front will have some light flow off Lake Erie and allow for
more seasonable high temperatures with 60s and lower 70s. Areas
south of the front will remain with above normal warmth and
highs in the lower 80s will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The axis of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Upper
Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes regions will move eastward
Thursday night. A large upper level trough will be over centered
over the north central U.S. border into south central Canada
Thursday night into Friday. A weak mid level wave in the 500 mb flow
will track from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Great
Lakes region by Friday morning. A weak warm front will lift
northward across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Thursday
night. There will be a slight chance for a few showers with this
warm front over NW OH late Thursday night.

A weak cold front will track eastward across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region on Friday. We will see a return flow of low level
moisture and warm air advection ahead of this approaching weak
front. High temperatures will be very warm again in the upper 70s to
lower 80s Friday afternoon. At this time, thermodynamics looks
relatively weak with limited instability up to 1000 J/kg of mixed
layer CAPE and Bulk shear values up to 30 knots. With limited
atmospheric energy, we expect scattered rain showers and a few
general thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. This front will slow
down and perhaps stall out or gradually wash out near the
Ohio/Pennsylvania state line early Saturday.

The upper level trough axis will move from the north central U.S.
into the Upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Another weak mid
level impulse in the 500 mb flow will track around the base of the
trough through the Ohio Valley Saturday evening. Another weak cold
and slow moving front will approach the area from the west late
Saturday into Saturday night. Scatter rain showers and a few
general thunderstorms will be around for Saturday and Saturday night
with chance to likely POPs lingering in the forecast. Temperatures
will be cooler in the upper 60s to middle 70s due to cloud cover and
rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving and weak frontal boundary will slowly try to push
eastward through the area Sunday. We will maintain chance POPs for
showers and isolated thunder on Sunday. The higher rain chances
Sunday will be over our eastern CWA. There will be a gradual
decrease in POPs and cloud cover from west to east late on Sunday. A
weak area of high pressure will build over the area briefly on
Monday with slightly drier weather. A warm front will lift through
the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday with additional chances
for rain. And the weather pattern may continue to be a little
unsettled through the middle of next week. Temperatures will also
stay above average in the low to middle 70s for the early to middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Can`t rule out a brief isolated
shower/storm somewhere across the area later this afternoon
ahead of a weak cold front, but chances appear too limited to
include in TAFs so have gone ahead and removed vcsh mention from
CLE.

Winds are generally out of the southwest ahead of the
approaching cold front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25
knots. Winds will shift towards the west immediately behind the
cold front later this afternoon and evening, decreasing to 10
knots or less after sunset. Winds may become light and variable
overnight before favoring a slight east to northeast direction
by Thursday morning. A lake breeze may develop at CLE/ERI late
Thursday morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon through Saturday. Non-VFR may persist in additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
The weather over Lake Erie will be relatively quiet for the rest of
this week into this weekend outside of any scattered thunderstorms
that may move through. Winds will become west to southwest at 10 to
15 knots today. Weak high pressure will move over the lake tonight
with light and variable around 5 knots tonight into Thursday
morning. East to northwest winds will develop later Thursday with
speeds of 5 to 12 knots as high pressure moves eastward away from
the lake. Southeast winds will return 5 to 10 knots Thursday night
into Friday as a warm front lifts through. Winds of 5 to 12 knots
will fluctuate between East/Northeast and East/Southeast Friday
night into Saturday due to a weak front moving across the area.
Winds will return from the southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday night
and Sunday. No headlines are expected for the lake through the
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin