Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
110 FGUS64 KTUA 051659 ESPCO Water Supply Outlook March 5, 2024 ABRFC will be using the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point. February saw above average snowfall across the Upper Arkansas and Canadian Basins. This has brought snowpack to near normal levels in some areas. Overall snowpack is near normal or below normal throughout the basin. At the end of February, snowpack conditions were near normal across the Upper Arkansas Basin and the Canadian Basin. The snowpack is slightly below normal across the Front Range in southern Colorado. Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 95 percent-of-average for the Arkansas River at Salida and 89 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 64, 75, and 68 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 100 percent-of-average runoff. Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 69 percent-of-average. In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is forecast to be 68 and 56 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 53 and 68 percent-of-average, respectively. Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-February) in the mountain headwaters of Colorado is near median, overall. Reports range from 77 percent-of-median at Whiskey Creek to 150 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is 105 percent-of- median snowpack. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 82 percent-of-median. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 88 percent-of-median. New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is below median. Reports range from 65 percent-of-median at Red River Pass to 89 percent-of-median at Wesner Springs. The snowpack in the Canadian River basin is at 100 percent-of-median. Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 112 percent-of-median above Pueblo Reservoir and 91 percent-of-median below the resorvoir. The upper reservoirs are at 118 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 166 percent of last year`s total. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks for the nation. The outlook for March through May calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the Arkansas and Canadian Basins. The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation across mountainous areas of Colorado and New Mexico. ****************************************************** * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ****************************************************** $$