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000
FNUS71 KCTP 221103
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for D3C...DMVA
National Weather Service State College PA
703 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Chilly start today, then mostly sunny and warmer with minRH
forecast around 20% this afternoon. MinRH values have been
adjusted to the lower end of the forecast range based on strong
dewpoint and deep mixing signal.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 62.
Min Humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................10 early in the morning increasing to 65 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  40  44  48  53  56  57  59  60  61  62
RH................  59  49  42  33  29  25  23  21  20  19
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   10  10  13  14  14  14  13  12  11
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.5
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp Wind Spd...  9   13  14  16  17  18  17  18  16  15
LVORI.............  2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  10  49  49  49  62  62  62  65  65  65
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 37.
Max Humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....North 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east 3 to 6
                    mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 6.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  3   3   3   3   4   5   5   6   7   13  19  25
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  60  58  52  49  47  45  43  42  41  40  38  38
RH................  21  23  32  39  42  45  49  50  52  55  62  59
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   6           2   2   2   2
Mix Hgt (kft).....  6.7 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   N   N   NE  E   E   SE  E   E   E   SE
Transp Wind Spd...  14  9   6   5   6   5   3   3   5   5   5   6
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
ADI...............  6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3
Haines Index......  6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 68.
Min Humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 5 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 20 mph late in the morning, then increasing
                    to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 67 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  31  37  44  45  46  48  49  51  52  56  60  64
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  38  39  43  47  53  59  61  64  66  66  67  67
RH................  62  62  60  53  44  37  33  30  28  28  28  28
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  1   1   1   4   6   6   8   9   10  10  11  10
20 FT Wind Gust...  2   2   2   5   7   11  13  14  17  17  17  17
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  6   6   6   8   10  16  17  18  20  20  21  21
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  4   4   4   45  45  45  63  63  63  67  67  67
Haines Index......  4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Steinbugl
Requested by...Jon-Dimitri Lambrinos
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411685.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jolambrino@pa.gov