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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161657
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intense northwest winds Tuesday, with areas of blowing dust.
  Strongest winds expected across the northwest zones.

- Two cold fronts are expected, one on Thursday and another on
  Saturday, bringing much cooler air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong, and intensifying, 552 dm midlevel cyclone was spinning
over eastern Colorado at midnight. Forcing for ascent ahead of
this was just entering western Kansas as of midnight, per KDDC
radar data and satellite imagery. The delay in the timing of
this forcing, relative to the diurnal heating cycle, prevented
higher end severe weather from developing this evening. That
stated, mainly linear convection will continue to be forced for
the next several hours, as the Pacific cold front overtakes the
impressively sharp dryline. At midnight, Elkhart reported a
dewpoint of 13, with an impressive 69 dewpoint as far west as
Liberal. Instability is available to be released overnight as
boundary collisions finally force parcels through the stubborn
EML capping inversion. Cold advection at 500 mb will continue
overnight, down to < -20C, which will also keep convection
active for the next several hours. Large hail and damaging winds
remain possible.

Intense cyclone is forecast to be at 548 dm near Wakeeney at
7 am Tuesday, forcing the dry slot and elevated west winds over
SW KS. Sunshine will prevail Tuesday in the subsident
environment behind the departing cyclone. This sunshine will
also facilitate strong mixing after 10 am, after which time
intense northwest winds are expected. The inherited high wind
warning looks well placed, with gusts to near 60 mph favoring
the higher terrain of the northwest zones through the afternoon,
including Syracuse, Scott City, and Garden City. The strongest
winds are expected at midday, roughly noon-2pm, before gradients
begin to gradually weaken. Areas of blowing dust will be
common, and travel will be difficult, for much of daylight
Tuesday. 12z GFS shows a net cooling of about -10C at 850 mb
versus Monday, but April sunshine and NWly downslope
contributions will mask alot of this cooling. Afternoon
temperatures in the 70s are expected, with lower 80s southeast
of DDC.

Zonal flow reestablishes Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for a quiet night with lows in the 40s.

Sunny and unseasonably warm Wednesday, with 850 mb temperatures
quickly rebounding under zonal flow aloft, and south winds
returning. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Models remain consistent showing a strong cold front passage
Thursday morning, accompanied by strong north winds. NBM wind
grids were realistic, 20-30 mph sustained with gusts of 40-45
mph during the early hours of Thursday. Cold advection Thursday
morning is forecast to be significant, and Thursday will be
dramatically cooler, with afternoon temperatures struggling
through the 50s at many locations. NBM holds onto some chance
pops for light rain along I-70 with this accompanying shortwave,
but feel this is overdone, with most rain remaining northeast of
SW KS. Probability of any measurable rain for the northeast
counties remains limited to 10-20%. Cool surface high pressure
will be in control across the northern and central plains
through Friday, with an easterly wind component across SW KS.
This upslope flow and considerable cloud cover will work to keep
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

A strong secondary surge of colder air remains forecast for
Saturday. 00z ECMWF and its EPS ensemble members remain
consistent forecasting 850 mb temperatures ranging from -2C
north to +2C south through Saturday afternoon. NBM`s chance
category pops for light rain were retained for this frontal
passage, but feel a stratus/drizzle scenario is the most likely
outcome Saturday. The combination of stratus, drizzle and
northeast winds will work to keep Saturday afternoon unseasonably
chilly, struggling to get into the lower 50s. NBM may not be
cool enough for this anomalous airmass Saturday, with 00z EPS
probability of temperatures > 50 only 20-40% across northwest
zones. Northern zones may easily stay in the 40s Saturday.

During this upcoming cool regime, each morning Friday through
Sunday will offer chilly sunrise temperatures in the 30s. A
light freeze near 32 is probable at some of the colder northwest
locations each night. But in general, cloud cover is expected to
work against radiational cooling, and prevent damaging freezes.
The coldest morning and the best potential for a light freeze is
expected to be Sunday morning, with the 1030 mb high in vicinity
of SW KS. Another warming trend is expected Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time pd. Winds
will be very strong through the afternoon with blowing dust
reducing surface visibilities to 1 to 2 SM for DDC, GCK, and LBL.
Wind speeds will be at 20-30 kts with gusts as high as 50 kts
for all the terminals through 00Z. Winds should diminish after
00Z and speeds will be generally 7-12 kts through 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Intense northwest winds are expected to begin about 10 am
Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected from 10 am through
3 pm. Wind gusts of 40-50 will be common, with gusts as high as
60 mph across northwest zones. With slightly cooler air, minimum
relative humidity is expected to remain above red flag criteria,
at 20-30%. As such, no red flag warnings are planned. Still,
wildfire risk will clearly be elevated Tuesday, given an
abundance of dry dormant fuels and the intense northwest winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-084.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ075>078-
085>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Turner