Text Products for FWS Issued by DLH

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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FNUS73 KDLH 221052
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Firebird North Private Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
552 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 22.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny skies through high clouds early this morning will
increase and become mostly cloudy this afternoon. Mixing heights
at ignition time will be around 2000 to 2500 ft, but increase to
around 4400 ft this afternoon. The deeper mixing is expected to
occur later this morning through the early afternoon leading to
min RH around 34 percent, but min RH could drop to as low as 30
percent today. This is due to scattered to widespread rain showers
(40 percent chance) arrive this afternoon and evening. Expect
south-southwest winds this morning to become southwesterly and
breezy to strong late this morning through mid afternoon ahead of
an approaching weak cold front. 20 ft wind gusts increase to 20
mph by 1000 and then reach up to 20-23 mph for the remainder of
the afternoon before weakening and turning light this evening.
Smoke dispersal starts out fair early this morning before
improving to excellent this afternoon. Expect winds to shift to
westerly after 2000 this evening as the cold front moves through.
Expect a brief break in the rain showers this evening into tonight
following the cold frontal passage. Winds shifting to north-
northeast on Tuesday as an Alberta Clipper system moves into the
area.

Scattered rain showers (20 to 30 percent chance) will continue on
Tuesday, ending Tuesday evening. North-northeast gusts reach to
15-19 mph, but min RH stays in the low 50s due to lingering
precipitation.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 15 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph increasing to 23 to 29
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5000-23700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (75800-111900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  30  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............38  39  40  48  52  55  58  61  61  61  61  60
RH..............55  55  55  45  40  38  36  34  35  37  38  41
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   9   11  12  15  15  15  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust.12  13  14  18  20  22  23  23  22  21  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  16  22  23  24  26  28  29  29  26  23
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10005   6   9   24  34  43  76  87  102 112 99  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 13 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (47600-58900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    to fair (3700-13700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC                S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............60     54     48     44     42     40
RH..............42     52     63     68     67     70
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 6   W 6    W 6    W 6    W 7
20 ft wind gust.15     13     11     13     13     11
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   600    400    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 20  W 12   W 12   W 13   W 12   W 12
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100059     6      5      6      5      5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning, then slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph shifting to the north 15
                    to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5300-18100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair to good (25900-41200 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning, then increasing to good (42100-56700
                    knot-ft) late in the morning decreasing to fair
                    to good (28500-34000 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     70     60     60     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      1
Temp............39     42     49     50     49     46
RH..............76     78     67     61     57     54
20 ft wind......W 6    W 7    NW 9   N 10   N 12   NE 12
20 ft wind gust.9      12     15     18     19     18
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1200   2600   3000   2800   2300
Transport wind..W 12   NW 17  NW 18  N 21   N 21   NE 17
Haines index....5      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10005      18     41     55     50     34

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Josh Koelsch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411680.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joshua.koelsch@state.mn.us
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
