087
ACUS01 KWNS 131629
SWODY1
SPC AC 131628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN LA...AND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central
and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the
Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of
significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

...Northeast Gulf coast today...
An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western
FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71
kt range this morning.  This convective system will likely persist
while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and
immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast.  Damaging
winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could
produce a couple of tornadoes.

...South central TX to southern LA through tonight...
A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas
near and south of San Antonio as of 16z.  Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE
of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer
vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3
inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon.
Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the
afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled
front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail
threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80
mph.  The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving
across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the
wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle.  Areas northeast
of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL,
with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the
storms from the west.

...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight...
The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR
through this evening.  Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north
of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a
low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening
along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding
the midlevel trough.  The eastward extent of any severe threat
tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected
convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/13/2024

$$