Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 131831
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 04/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad
swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of
elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low
currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over
the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late
Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of
the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level
winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across
much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most
fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response
is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but
corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with
receptive fuels.

...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin...
Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for
pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent
areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent
signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into
the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the
single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely
attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope
warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest
west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region
should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be
monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher
confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$
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