884
ACUS02 KWNS 021732
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon
into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great
Plains.

...Synopsis...
As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into
Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies
into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with
the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of
NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO
Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt
of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across
TX/OK.

...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity...
In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level
moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to
previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to
move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy
and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support
isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the
afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary
hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While
low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if
sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the
afternoon.

...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles...
In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for
moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the
central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However,
relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates
will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak
heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the
cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear
will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters
could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale
growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves
east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts
and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding
buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 05/02/2024

$$