627
FXUS66 KEKA 141015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
315 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A modest warming trend will continue through Wednesday.
Summer-like weather will persist through the week with hot
afternoons in the interior and stratus along the coast. No
precipitation is expected through the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad area of high pressure will continue to build
across NW California through midweek, promoting calm and generally
summer-like weather. This means sunny skies for the interior with
hot inland valleys reaching the low 90s. At the same time,
persistent onshore and northerly flow will continue to support
gloomy stratus along the coast with clearing in the afternoon. No
precipitation is expected. Though strong day time heating will help
generate solid surface instability, the general lack of moisture
makes any interior showers unlikely (less than 10% chance). Any
showers that do appear would be weak and isolated to high terrain.
Though solidly above normal, inland high temperatures are still far
from any kind of record. Low pressure along the Central California
coast will keep the strongest high pressure offshore generally
inhibiting any extreme warming.

Very similar, calm weather will continue though the week. Low
pressure dipping over British Columbia late in the week will disrupt
high pressure, bringing mildly cooling the interior back into the
80s by Friday. Perhaps the bigger impact is that any disrupting to
high pressure will allow for better clearing along the coast (most
likely by Wednesday night) and better penetration of marine moisture
into the interior. Still, despite the upper level trough essentially
no model shows any precipitation through the weekend. Long range
predictions show calm, summer-like weather continuing to build for
the foreseeable future. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Coastal stratus continues this morning, with ongoing
IFR conditions for coastal terminals and possible brief LIFR
ceilings around daybreak. Stratus should recede toward the coast
this morning, but may be stubborn for much of the immediate coast
once again today. More robust offshore winds are forecast to
continue above Del Norte and develop above much of Humboldt, which
may disrupt the marine layer and stratus at coastal sites north of
Cape Mendocino this afternoon. There is potential for clouds to form
around Humboldt Bay once again late tonight, however current
guidance is split on this potential. Stratus is expected to be more
stubborn for areas further to the south along the Mendo coast. KUKI
should mostly remain VFR through the TAF period, although stratus is
currently advecting northward up the Russian River Valley, and there
is a chance for a brief period of LIFR early this morning should
these reach the terminal.


&&

.MARINE...The surface high offshore is forecast to drift northward
this morning, strengthening the pressure gradient off of Cape Blanco
and weakening it near Cape Mendocino. This is expected to enhance
northerlies downwind of Blanco in the Northern outers, particularly
the NW corner of the zone. Meanwhile, winds are forecast to drop
below GALE FORCE in the southern outers later this morning, with a
southerly reversal developing in the southern inners. This MSLP
pattern is forecast to persist through much of the upcoming week,
with GALE FORCE WINDS persisting in the northern outers and
generating large, steep, northerly waves propagating downstream into
PZZ475 through the rest of this week.

A few small NW and S swells move through the waters over
the next week, however seas remain primarily locally generated,
dominated by short-period northerlies from the wind core in the
northern outers. Short period seas look to hit their maximum late
tonight...with hazardous seas propagating into the Northern Inners
overnight. Seas are forecast to briefly relax early Wednesday, then
steepen up again Wednesday night, so have opted to continue the Haz
Seas Warning for the Northern Inners through into Thursday
morning.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png