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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130348
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas of
about 14 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but
seas in the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 09N and 102W. Ongoing
high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these
gales through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze
late Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should
drop below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon.
Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing gap wind
event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine
conditions over the affected waters.

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 03N90W to 04N85W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 07N120W to 03N135W to beyond
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to
10N between 102W and 105W, and from 11N to 13N between 110W and
112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Fresh to strong southerly winds may be pulsing over the northern
Gulf of California currently, ahead of a cold front approaching
Baja California Norte from the west. Elsewhere, outside of the
Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds persist across
the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off
Baja California with a component of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft
elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low
pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will support fresh
to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California. These
winds will be reinforced by a weak cold front that will be moving
across the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun.
This wil allow the continuation of fresh to strong winds in the
northern Gulf of California through early Sun morning. In the
wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh
to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun
night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will
dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore
waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore
zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also
influences fresh to strong NNE gap winds in the Gulf of Panama N
of 05N. Light and variable winds prevail across the rest of the
Central American and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the
Papagayo region, seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-
gale overnight tonight and again Sat night. The forcing will
diminish some Mon into Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will
continue into mid week. The same pressure gradient will continue
to support fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
through Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker
for the next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
mainly north of 06N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 8
ft in this region, with a component of mixed NE and NW swell.
Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next
couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into
Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of
25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas
should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion
area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to
N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching
as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell
will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell
will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of
115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will
reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will
reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Christensen