102
FNUS74 KEPZ 011933
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GIla National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
133 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will remain steady out of the west today with some gusts getting
up to 20mph, especially above the tree canopy. Winds will stay consistent
through sunset but will become light and variable overnight. RH values
continue to be in the teens with recovery up into the 30-40% range overnight.
Winds look to be slightly lower tomorrow than today, about 5 mph on average
with RH also expected to be slightly above average as well. Ventilation rates
will be favorable through the evening, but will drop overnight into poor
conditions.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph increasing to around 22
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (142700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (181000
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      5      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     63     68     71     71
RH..............27     17     13     11     12
20 ft wind......SW 8   W 8    W 12  SW 14  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.16     12     22     25     26
Mix hgt (ft)....3600   7300   7300   8300   8300
Transport wind..W 15   W 20  W 22   W 25   W 25
Haines index....3      4      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46     143    143    181    181
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 14 mph with gusts to around 24
                    mph becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (161100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      4      2      2      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     57     51     47     44     41
RH..............14     23     29     36     40     44
20 ft wind......W 12   W 11   W 8    W 5    W 5    W 4
20 ft wind gust.24     24     18     10     10     9
Mix hgt (ft)....7700   7700   600    600    500    500
Transport wind..W 18   W 18   W 13   W 13   W 12   W 12
Haines index....4      3      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..161    161    6      6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (125300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........3         1         5         10
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        53        63        68
RH..............48        31        18        14
20 FT wind......W 3G6     NW 6G12   W 9G16    W 10G18
Mix hgt (ft)....3700      3700      9100      10300
Transport wind..NW 10     NW 10     W 10      W 12
Haines index....2         2         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37        37        80        125
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...BARHAM
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412708.2/EPZ
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov