Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190512 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1212 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...New AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Current Doppler radar data and surface observations are detecting
light rain over a few spots across the Rio Grande and Coastal
Plains. This activity is elevated in nature and very little of it is
reaching the ground. It looks like a lot of precipitation but it is
not. This light showery activity continues through late this
afternoon mainly over the western half of South Central Texas with a
mix of partly sunny to cloudy skies. There is even sunny skies over
the Hill Country as of this writing with temperatures in the low to
mid 60s and upper 50s to low 60s where clouds are dominating.
A cloudy night is in store for this evening into Tuesday morning
with overnight lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s to low 50s a
long the Rio Grande.
Tuesday starts cloudy and remains cloudy and cool with highs in the
60s. No rain expected through the period across the local area with
the exception of a few sprinkles (opted not to show this probability
due to low confidence)across the northwest part of Val Verde County.
Tuesday`s night temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s
along the Rio Grande.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The upper level low/trough will remain to our west for one more day
on Wednesday before finally ejecting east across the southern Plains
late Wednesday into Thursday. As it does so, there should be enough
upper level lift and instability to overcome weak surface
instability and a capping inversion, resulting in the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area overnight into
Thursday morning. As convection initially develops, a couple of the
stronger, discrete cells may be capable of producing isolated large
hail, and SPC has a Level 1/5 risk in place across much of the area
to cover this threat.
The frontal boundary associated with this system will be pretty weak
since the parent low/trough has spent so much time sitting out west,
though dry, northwesterly flow is expected during the day Thursday
across western portions of the area which could lead to an elevated
fire weather threat. Otherwise, temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal levels Thursday into the weekend as northwesterly flow
sets up aloft behind the departing trough. This should also result
in dry conditions until at least Sunday night when a longwave trough
will begin to move in from the west coast. An initial wave from this
system may bring some shower development across northern portions of
the area Sunday night into Monday, with the best forcing appearing
to remain further north of south-central Texas at this time. While
beyond the current 7-day forecast, additional precipitation chances
are expected closer to mid-week next week as the main system begins
to push into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mainly overcast skies at the 050-100 level through the next 24 hours
before we see a decrease in ceilings after sunset Tuesday night. Del
Rio will see ceilings drop earlier than other sites as low clouds
develop from west to east Tuesday night. San Antonio will be next
followed by Stinson and Bergstrom. For now, I believe ceilings will
remain above MVFR through the TAF period at AUS and SSF. Winds should
remain less than 10 kts at all sites through the period, shifting
from ENE and variable to ESE at 5-10 kts by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 65 49 67 58 / 10 0 10 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 46 66 58 / 10 0 10 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 48 67 58 / 10 0 10 50
Burnet Muni Airport 64 47 66 57 / 0 0 0 40
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 54 75 60 / 10 10 10 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 48 67 57 / 0 0 0 40
Hondo Muni Airport 60 47 66 56 / 10 0 10 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 63 46 66 57 / 10 0 10 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 50 67 59 / 0 0 10 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 60 49 65 58 / 10 0 10 50
Stinson Muni Airport 61 50 67 59 / 10 0 10 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...MMM