538
FXUS64 KEWX 291929
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
229 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather is expected this afternoon and evening outside of the
potential for a stray thunderstorm across the far southeastern
portion of the Coastal Plains as an outflow boundary from convection
over the Gulf of Mexico continues to move inland. Any storm that
fires in this environment will have the potential to become severe
with current SBCAPE values around 4,000 J/kg and effective shear
around 35-50 kts based on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Otherwise, we can expect low status and areas of patchy fog to
redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Closer to sunrise, we may
start to see some patchy drizzle/light rain showers begin to develop
across mainly southern portions of the area as well.

Tomorrow afternoon, there will once again be a low potential for an
isolated storm or two to develop along the seabreeze and/or any
lingering boundary from today`s convection across southern portions
of the Coastal Plains. There is a better chance for storms to fire
along a dryline out in west Texas and along the SDB Mountains in
Mexico. This activity will try to push west into our area through
the evening hours, but more likely than not will struggle to do so
before dissipating. Low clouds and patchy fog looks likely again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move over TX in
westerly flow aloft during the first part of the long term period.
The first will combine with a dryline in the boundary layer and bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.
There may be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear to produce
strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Large hail
and isolated tornadoes are the main threat. Another upper disturbance
will bring chances for convection Thursday afternoon and evening.
Friday a cold front will move through Central Texas and then through
our CWA Friday night. This will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, but it looks like it will be a weak boundary and
chances are low. The front will stall in the region and another upper
shortwave trough will move across Saturday making convection possible
again. Another dryline could generate storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. Weak ridging will bring dry weather Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions have improved to VFR early this afternoon across south-
central Texas, and will remain VFR through the evening hours before
MVFR to IFR cigs as well as pockets of reduced visibility in BR
redevelop overnight/early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then
slowly improve back to VFR through the late morning hours. Winds will
generally be around or below 10 kts out of the E/SE through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  89  71  85 /   0  10   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  88  70  85 /   0  10   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  89  71  86 /   0  10   0  40
Burnet Muni Airport            65  87  70  83 /   0   0   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  96  75  90 /   0   0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  87  70  83 /   0   0   0  30
Hondo Muni Airport             68  90  70  86 /   0   0   0  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  88  70  85 /   0  10   0  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  87  71  84 /   0  10   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  88  71  85 /   0  10   0  40
Stinson Muni Airport           69  89  73  86 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Gale