058
FXUS64 KEWX 072327
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak surface boundary has dropped southward into the area into
this afternoon. This boundary could waver back and forth over the
region into this evening before fizzling. This combined with the
daytime heating reaching near or above the convective temperature
may possibly yield to an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop
across the Hill Country. If a storm is able to form, convective
parameters with CAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg along with effective bulk
wind shear above 50 knots could result in a storm becoming severe.
Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy downpours would be
primary concern with a storm, if it develops. If any cells do
develop, they should quickly dissipate by around 10 pm with the
increase in convective inhibition. Again, vast majority of South-
Central Texas will see no rain this evening. Otherwise, it will
remain very warm and humid as the afternoon highs, which top out
within the upper 80s and 90s only fall into the low to mid 70s
overnight.

The dryline advances eastward into Wednesday afternoon and should
get close to the highway 281 corridor. For locations following the
dryline on the western side should anticipate a hot but dry heat
with westerly winds. Del Rio International looks to threaten the
daily high temperature record of 103 set back in 1967. To the east
of the dryline, it will be hot and humid with the afternoon highs
into the 90s and peak heat indices up into the 100 to 105 degree
range for areas along and east of I-35. Capping inversion looks to
hold for most on Wednesday with the only area to watch within our
region being across our northeastern most counties. The greater
forcing along with severe potential looks to maintain just to the
northeast of our CWA within the FWD and HGX CWA`s, where SPC is
pinpointing the higher risk level. We`ll closely monitor but will
keep the forecast dry for now. Another warm and humid night is
otherwise expected Wednesday night with the overnight lows ranging
from the mid to upper 60s over the Hill Country to the low to mid
70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a strongly
tilted trough over the western half of the country at the start of
the long term period. A cold front will move through South Central
Texas Thursday. This will only bring a low chance for rain to the
northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it will bring relief
from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the
weekend. The upper trough will close off over the Four Corners region
Saturday kick out into the southern Plains Sunday. A shortwave trough
will move through this pattern. This bring low chances for showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. The better chances will be
Sunday with the shortwave overhead. The main trough will swing
through Monday and there may be another chance for convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions continue until around 04-05Z at I-35 sites and around
08Z at DRT. Low stratus will develop again tonight into Wednesday
morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected. Some models develop LIFR
conditions near SAT/SSF, but using persistence opted to keep this
potential out of the forecast. Areas of fog will also be possible,
particularly over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country. Ceilings will first lift at DRT as a dryline
moves over the western half of the area in the morning, eventually
lifting in the east during the early afternoon. South to
southeasterly wind continues through morning at all sites before
winds shift from the northwest at DRT around 13Z. After 18Z the
eastern half of the area will see modest west to southwesterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  73  89 /  10  10   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  71  89 /  10  10   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  70  87 /  20  10   0  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 105  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  72  87 /  20  10   0  30
Hondo Muni Airport             73  99  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  72  91 /  10   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  74  89 /   0  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  96  74  94 /  10   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  99  73  94 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...05
Aviation...27