491
FXUS62 KFFC 022358 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
758 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The weather today will be characterized by a 500 mb ridge
positioned over the eastern CONUS. Skies are expected to be partly
cloudy, with only scattered fair weather cumulus clouds
underneath passing upper cirrus clouds. Temperatures this
afternoon are forecast to rise to between 8-12 degrees above
climatological normals, mainly ranging from the mid 80s in far
north Georgia to the low 90s in portions of central Georgia.
Overnight into Friday morning, the ridge will move eastward
towards the Atlantic coast while a shortwave trough rotates into
the region around an upper low centered over the High Plains. As
this disturbance approaches, a cold front will advance through the
Midwest, gradually slowing as it advances towards Kentucky.
Precipitation ahead of this feature will advance into far north
Georgia on Friday morning, spreading southward over the course of
the day.

By Friday afternoon, likely PoPs are forecast roughly north of
the I-20 corridor, with chance PoPs elsewhere across the area.
With dewpoints in the low 60s and high temperatures forecast to be
in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central
Georgia, there will be ample instability to support thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon. Low-level shear and better dynamics
are expected to stay north of the forecast area and closer to the
frontal boundary. While severe thunderstorms are not forecast on
Friday, isolated stronger storms could be capable of producing
gusty winds.

King


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The surface high pressure over the western Atlantic shifting off
to the east will help set the stage for a few rounds of active
weather as several shortwave disturbances ripple through the base
of the trough to our west. Saturday, the ridge axis just to our
west will break down as the first shortwave disturbance produces
showers and thunderstorms Saturday for much of the area. A
sufficient amount of surface based CAPE (1000-1500+ J/kg) will be
in place Saturday as isolated storms ahead of more organized
clusters will move across the area. Severe weather is not expected
at this time as limited wind shear and less than optimal lapse
rates will struggle to maintain strong updrafts. However, a few
storms could become strong on Saturday with damaging wind gusts,
lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall being the primary
hazards. Another shortwave on Sunday will produce an additional
round of showers and thunderstorms with a final disturbance on
Monday. While scattered to numerous activity is expected on Sunday
and Monday, convective activity is not expected to be as
widespread as Saturday. QPF through early Tuesday morning will
range from a half inch across western central Georgia and
increasing along an axis to the northeast to around an inch. As
the ridge axis beings to reestablish itself across the east coast,
the next disturbance will keep rain chances relegated to far
north Georgia on Tuesday. A low end chance for precipitation will
remain on Wednesday across far north Georgia Wednesday, but
otherwise dry conditions will largely return.

While there will be periods of active weather throughout the long
term forecast and will help lower temperatures over the weekend,
the hottest temperatures of the year are expected by midweek.
Temperatures will remain in the low 80s on Saturday and Sunday,
rebounding by midweek into the low 90s for most locations outside
of the mountains.

KAL


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A few showers have developed across central GA, but conditions
will be dry at all TAF sites overnight. Cirrus will give way to
mid-level ceilings (070-150) overnight into tomorrow (Friday)
morning. SCT lower-VFR clouds (040-060) are expected as well. Have
TSRA in PROB30 groups tomorrow afternoon and early evening for
all sites except for CSG. Winds will be light and ESE to SSE
overnight. By 14z-16z tomorrow, winds will pick up to 5-10 kts out
of the SSE to SSW (favoring SSW at ATL).

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of precip.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  83  64  80 /  10  40  50  80
Atlanta         65  84  65  82 /  10  40  50  80
Blairsville     60  76  59  74 /  20  70  70  90
Cartersville    64  84  62  82 /  10  40  60  80
Columbus        65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  60
Gainesville     63  80  64  79 /  10  50  60  90
Macon           65  87  66  83 /  10  40  40  80
Rome            64  84  62  82 /  20  50  60  80
Peachtree City  65  85  64  83 /  10  30  50  80
Vidalia         66  89  67  84 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Martin