868
FXUS62 KFFC 090521
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
121 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A nearly stationary frontal boundary currently extends from S New
England SW to near Kansas City. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
extend across NC and TN to MO in a very moist and unstable warm
sector. A few discrete strong to severe storms have also fired
across extreme NE GA and NW SC. Mid-level flow is fairly zonal, with
stronger short waves and/or lows well to the N. However,
disturbances farther S continue to force convection in the juicy
environment.

Models continue to indicate a shortwave dropping SE across N GA late
tonight. Many high resolution models bring thunderstorms S later
tonight into an environment with MUCAPES of 2000 J/kg or higher and
effective shear values of 30-40 knots. This should continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind and hail the main
threats. There will also be a risk of isolated tornadoes, mainly
across the extreme N. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, as storm
motion will likely nearly parallel the orientation of the axis of
storms.

As these storms continue to progress S, some guidance weakens them
late tonight and early Thu. However, this solution is highly
uncertain given the continuing instability and shear across the
area. Even if these storms do weaken, there will likely be a
lingering boundary formed by the cool pool leftover from the storms
that will act as an additional focusing mechanism for storm
redevelopment later in the day on Thu. Instability and shear near
and S of the old outflow boundary will be high. The greatest
uncertainty with this feature will revolve around how stable the air
is N of the old outflow boundary and how that limits convection
initiation farther to the N.

A potent shortwave will move across the S portion of the area late
Thu night and into Fri, supporting more strong to severe
thunderstorms across the S portion of the area. The S boundary of
the cool pool will likely help focus these storms. Due to the slow
advancement of a cold front to the S and the E storm motion along a W-
E aligned line of storms, locally heavy rainfall is definitely
possible.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Highlights:

-Shower and thunderstorm activity continues on Friday mainly for the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area.

-Drier weather briefly returns this weekend before rain makes
another appearance early next week.

Latest hi-res guidance is coming into better agreement with bringing
an MCS originating in East TX across the Southeast states Thursday
night through early Friday morning. With decent instability,
another surge of moisture (PWs surging between 1-2" range) and
plenty of shear another early morning wind threat Friday morning
(start of the long term period) will be possible for areas I-20
southward. As stated in previous forecast discussions, guidance
tends to struggle with exact placement and evolution of MCS
features thus there are a few uncertainties with regards to the
exact path of this overnight/early morning MCS. Additionally, what
occurs Friday morning will impact what occurs for the remainder
of the day -- i.e. redevelopment across the southeast in the
vicinity of the southward moving cold front or lack of development
due to a `worked over` environment. In addition to the severe
threat localized flooding will also be a concern given multiple
rounds of active weather in the short term and the start of the
long term period. Will continue to monitor in later forecast
updates.

Otherwise, a cold front that will be situated across North GA will
continue migrating southward as a shortwave to our north swings
eastward. This will act to gradually bring any shower or
thunderstorm activity to an end by Friday evening. A brief period of
dry and slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend as we
return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances look to return to the
region next week as another low pressure system developing in the
Southern Plains moves eastward.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Thunderstorms currently to the north will continue to sag
southward tonight. Progress has slowed a little, so have adjusted
the timing back one hour for the tempo group. Line that moves
through close to 11-12Z will have the potential for severe
storms. Upped the gusts to 45kt. A brief period of shra possible
on the back side of the line, but quick clearing of precip
thereafter. SCT cu for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will
remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med-high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  80  51  77 /  20  20   0   0
Atlanta         65  79  54  77 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     57  70  45  69 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    61  77  49  76 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        68  84  57  79 /  60  50   0   0
Gainesville     65  78  52  75 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           67  82  55  79 /  30  30   0   0
Rome            62  77  50  78 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  63  80  52  78 /  20  20   0   0
Vidalia         71  85  60  80 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa