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000
FXUS63 KFGF 132046
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND THRU FRI/FRI NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE FA UNDER RIDGING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST. THERE HAS
BEEN SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS WYOMING/EASTERN MT THAT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NE INTO CANADA. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OUT IN THIS REGION TONIGHT WITH BEST SUPPORT THERE. MAIN
QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS OUT
THERE CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH INTO THE FA TOWARD FRI MORNING.
RAP13/NAM12 SHOW THE PCPN STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE FA WHILE THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE WESTERN FA
TOWARD MORNING. THE GFS PARTICULARLY OVERDOES LIGHT PCPN IN WARM
ADVECTION SCENARIOS SO THINKING ITS PCPN IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER
FORECAST ALREADY HAD SOME VERY LOW PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER 09Z SO WILL LEAVE THEM AS THEY WERE. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL.

SPC HAS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX
ON DAY2. LOTS OF THINGS WILL COME INTO PLAY YET WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER THE
FA FRI. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OR HOW FAST SFC HEATING TAKES
PLACE. LIKE THE GFS IDEA AT THIS POINT. WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
REMAINING OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THINK
THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER ANYWAY ACROSS NW MN. BETTER SFC
HEATING WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL ND WHERE GFS SHOWS GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG CAPE BY AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE
ACROSS THE WEST/NW FA. THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
SEVERE WX THREAT SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TOO. CONVECTION
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SAT LOOKS DRY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER POSSIBLE ON SUN AS
THE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.

FOR MON NIGHT THRU THU THE LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME DIFFERENCES ON DAY 7.
SUN NIGHT A WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. NW FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP AND
RESULTS IN POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ON MON BEFORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER FROM MON
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP ON WED
AND TEMPS LIKELY WILL RISE INTO THE 80S...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIP BY THU. 12Z ECMWF DID BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION AS
EARLY AS THU...HOWEVER 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE BOTH DRY. DO
THINK BETTER CHANCE WILL BE THU AND CONSALL SOLUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDS TO WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PICK UP FRIDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BRINGING SHOWERS TO PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z AND INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FRI AFTN. EXPECT VFR CIGS
IN THE DVL AND FAR AREA BY NOONTIME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER