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000
FXUS63 KFGF 151454
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA ARE WEAKENING AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS. 850MB SFC SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SREF MODEL INDICATES QUIET CONDITIONS THRU
THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST INTO MANITOBA LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY SPREAD SOME
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE GONE UP ALONG THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS ND. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
FROM THE FARGO AREA OUT TOWARDS PARK RAPIDS. NOT MUCH IF ANYTHING
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 17Z WHICH IS WHEN THE RAP HAS THE
BAND DISSIPATING. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE JET THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA
DURING THE DAY TODAY...LEAVING NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WITH WEST WINDS WE
SHOULD STILL GET UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
HAVE SOME PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THANKS TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID
50S TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG DOWN FROM CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SFC LOW WILL
MOVE OFF INTO NORTHERN MN AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL NOT SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL
TOWARDS SUNDAY EVENING...SO HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 80
WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE MORE PROLONGED COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS A
BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE 70S. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
EASY TO REACH SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...A DIFFICULT POP FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME
FRAME AS THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL
PLAINS 500MB RIDGE AND/OR STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 500MB NW
FLOW. DRY WEATHER FROM SFC HIGH ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWER
CHANCES AS WEAK ENERGY COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABLE
UNDER THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVECTING CENTRAL PLAINS AIRMASS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INTERACT WITH IMPULSES IN
THE GENERAL FLOW EITHER ORIGINATING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN
THE NW FLOW OR FROM SHORT WAVES FEATURES ROLLING OVER TOP THE RIDGE.
EITHER WAY EXPECTING SEASON TEMPERATURES AND WEAK CHCS FOR
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
AND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. WEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE 15
TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS IN SOME PLACES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR