Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1254 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Necessary to extend dense fog advisory along a band of counties
along and just east of the valley where vsby remains a quarter
mile or less. Extended to 3pm and will reevaluate at main forecast
issuance time.

UPDATE Issued at 927 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Fairly widespread vsby blo quarter mile continues east of the Red
River so will maintain dense fog advisory. Current forecast on

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

As weak surface trough propagates northward winds are increasing
from the west, and mixing the low levels increasing visibility due
to the dense fog. Will cancel the North Dakota portion of the
dense fog advisory. Most guidance (HRRR, RAP, MOS) indicates the
dense fog across Minnesota will at least be more than 1/4sm by
noon. Radar continues to show some returns here and there,
although there is a weakening trend. Current PoP/Wx forecast seems
reasonable as the forcing will continue to weaken.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Dense fog and precip chances the main concerns. Water vapor
imagery indicates a couple upper circulations in the vicinity of
the region, propagating north with an area of deformation lifting
through the FA. Radar imagery does show some returns within this
area of deformation, falling as liquid (dry mid-upper layers with
saturated low level layer above freezing) within SFC temps just
above freezing. Current road temperatures from DOT sites are 32F
to 34F. Current road reports continue to indicate mostly wet
surfaces. Dense fog continues along and east of the valley with
surface winds calm. Visibilities are improving west of the valley
where winds are increasing from the west as the weak surface
trough lifts north into Canada. This trend should continue through
the day, and expect visibilities to improve from west to east.
Will keep dense fog advisory in effect until noon...and re-
evaluate later this morning (may need to be extended for portions
of Minnesota). Will also monitor for icy roads, but at this time
any slick spots should remain isolated).

Cloudy into tonight...with -sn possible NW Minnesota. Not sure
about fog, but should be at least some mixing to prevent dense
fog (maybe?).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Monday-Tuesday...Will be watching a system ejecting from the
Rockies. 00z guidance (operational models and ensemble solutions)
indicate the best potential for heaviest QPF will be well south of
the region. The far southern FA (south of I-94) could receive an
inch or two of snow Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Thursday...The main upper low will move by to the
south, but several weak reinforcing shortwaves will be rotating
through during the period. This will bring some light snow at times,
but all models keep QPF very light and accumulations at this point
look minimal. The shortwaves will also help shift surface winds to a
more northwesterly direction and bring some cold air advection.
Temps for the mid-week will be colder and well below the freezing
mark, but still above seasonal averages.

Friday and Saturday...The models are all in good agreement on north
to northwesterly flow aloft, but have differences in shortwaves
coming down for Saturday and bringing a reinforcing shot of cold
air. Before that on Friday there is good agreement on surface winds
becoming more westerly with some slight warm air advection. By
Saturday the ECMWF brings down a weak shortwave and more cold air,
while GFS stays a bit more mild. The majority of ensemble members
lean towards the warmer GFS so will keep the blended solution which
continues temps above normal for Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR-LIFR cigs continue and will likely continue through the
forecast period. VSBY more variable with the lowest vsby just east
of the valley. Hoping for some improvement through the afternoon
but fog to some degree will likely continue east of the valley


MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ004-007-



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