969
FXUS63 KFGF 030439
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of
  the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are
  possible, especially the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast and timing of rain on track. Low is right over Grand
Forks at 03z. East wind at KGFK and west wind at KRDR. Rain area
moving north with backedge of the rain approaching Grand Forks
area. Rain in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji) remains less than
desired as that area up to Baudette keeps missing the higher
rain totals. Other than minor tweeks to grids no further weather
issues noted overnight. .



UPDATE
Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Low pressure is moving north-northeast and near Mayville ND at
00z. Sfc front located from low to Fargo then to Fergus Falls to
Alexandria. WSW to west winds behind it and south-southeast
winds ahead of it. Area of moderate rain ahead of the low moving
north and into the northern valley. Scattered showers and a few
t-storms western and central ND will weaken as they move east
but still worth watching. Otherwise trend overnight will be to
watch clearing line and pop trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with
multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave
troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break
in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving,
upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday,
bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions
of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The
best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south
of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east,
with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening.

H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next
system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of
the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A
relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles
heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher
with this system, along with a better chance for increased
instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will
favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or
two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons
respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Skies have partially cleared over SE ND into WC MN with edge of
main clouds near a Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Bemidji line. As
sfc low continues to move north and into Manitoba prior to 12z
do look for remaining areas with southeast winds to turn
southwest, with all areas seeing a west-southwest wind Friday at
times gusty in the midday and aftn to near 30 kts, more so in E
ND and the RRV. Clouds are likely to remain along Hwy 2 and
north thru Friday daytime. Though MVFR cigs may improve some as
rain ends, and Friday will see cloud bases more in the lower end
VFR range. CU may bring some lower end VFR ceilings back into
SE ND/WC MN midday and aftn Friday as well.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle