Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 022340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED AROUND
THE NOON HOUR HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED BETWEEN LISBON AND
COOPERSTOWN. NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY SHOWERS NEED TO BE ADDED FOR A WHILE YET
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS DOWN OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SD BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE VERY COLD LEADING TO THE
INSTABILITY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GO AWAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA BY 12Z TUE
AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...BRINGING
INCREASING NORTH WINDS. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT WILL BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WHEN COMBINING THE WIND WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES AND TEMPS MAY MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.
THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN DURING TUE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...STILL A LITTLE
COOLER IN THE EAST. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN IN
THE NORTHEAST FA WED NIGHT INTO THU...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY PUSH TO
WINDS ON THU...GIVING IT THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING A NICE BOOST IN
TEMPS. BUMPED UP HIGHS A LITTLE BIT MORE...WITH AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 500MB
FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 500MB
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18
TO 21C RANGE. SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH CHC OF THUNDER BRING NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DRY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS THIS TIME FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE  EXTENT OF A PCPN
SHIELD AS 500MB CUTOFF ENERGY SPINS SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WSHFT LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. FROPA WILL REACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AROUND
12Z DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY MINIMA SETTLING NEAR 20 TO 25
PERCENT TUE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE FWW
FOR VALLEY COUNTIES OF MN FROM POLK SOUTHWARD AS RFW CRITERIA MAY BE
REACHED THERE. WORDING FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED
FOR ND IN THE UPCOMING FWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...WJB


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