Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190046
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

No changes made at the current time. Monitoring temps this
evening and fog potential later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Challenges tonight and thursday will include temps and potential fog
development. Mixing from the south today has brought dewpoints up
into the mid 20s. Keeping winds up overnight will be critical for
limiting fog development as the snow pack temperature is colder
than current dewpoints (per NOHRSC snowpack analysis.) Winds
appear to remain in the 7 to 10kts across the northern valley with
a bit lighter values in the southern valley. Will go with patchy
fog developing overnight as moist layer condenses above the
relatively cold sfc layer. During the daytime hours tomorrow
deeper moisture and expected stratus deck lifts into wcntl MN by
mid morning. Expanse/timing of the cloud deck and possible fog, as
dewpoints rise into the low 30s, in question to the west and north
during daylight hours. NAM/ARW indicate lower clouds and vsbys
race northward into the Grand Forks area by noon. Nonetheless will
see increasing clouds during the daytime tomorrow though highs
still expected to be in the low and mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Active weather through most of the period as a series of western
waves, upper lows propagate through the forecast area. Primary
challenge will be precipitation type as column remains mild
through the period. Initially moisture advection shallow leading
to the potential for drizzle or freezing drizzle dependent on time
of day. A better chance for either rain/freezing rain or snow this
weekend as deeper saturation occurs through the column. Mid levels
dry out again early next week for possible shift back to the
drizzle thing before the column saturates again towards midweek.
By this time the column looks sufficiently cool enough for mainly
snow. Although precipitation amounts will be on the light side
will have to monitor for icing potential into early next week and
then potential for minor accumulations towards midweek.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Some challenges this fcst pd, mainly in regards to fog potential
later tonight and increasing low level moisture and IFR/MVFR
clouds spreading north Thursday aftn. Uncertainity abounds in the
above in regards to timing and coverage of fog later tonight, but
highest chance is in west central MN. Unsure about Bemidji but it
well could get some. It will be a radiational fog and as such it
is difficult to determine extent.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle


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