Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140427

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Issued at 953 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Radar indicating to areas of precipitation, the northern most a
band extending from NW Bottineau County into SW Manitoba...while a
smaller area is moving across srn Pierce County into my far wrn
zones. Question is how much precipitation is getting to the ground
as most obs not reporting...however strongest echoes in data
sparse areas. Latest CONSSHORT focuses on the northern band that
will slide east into far NW Towner county later tonight...while
ECAM guidance is a bit further south with the the higher POPs.
Current radar trends better support CONSSHORT and will lean
towards this solution. No changes to Top-Down grids and will keep
any precip in my NW zones mainly rain through 09Z...however there
is a mix in the far NW portion of Towner Co. Any snowflakes will
likely melt on impact given the ground temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Precipitation timing and type will be the main forecast problem
for the period.

A few sprinkles continue to make their way towards the Devils Lake
Basin this afternoon. The main upper trough is still just entering
the Northern Rockies, with the surface trough deepening over
southeast MT. An inverted trough will begin to enter central ND
overnight with a lead shortwave coming into the area, which should
bring more rain later tonight. The CAMs are in pretty good
agreement with some precip along the northern border during the
late evening and around midnight, with another band of precip
moving in during the early morning hours to the southwestern
counties. Model soundings are not too favorable for snow, but the
SREF probabilities have some low chances of snow in southern
Canada and a few flakes mixing in in our north is not out of the
question, but no impacts expected.

Rain will continue to push eastward into the Red River Valley
tomorrow morning, with clouds and precip keeping temps in the 40s
to low 50s. The global models are in fairly good agreement with a
significant embedded shortwave moving into eastern ND by late
afternoon/evening, which should bring the best chances for rain
with several tenths of QPF. The upper trough will quickly move
east Saturday night, with only a bit of lingering rain in the far
southeastern counties around midnight and we should dry out
completely by early morning. Think that the precip will be off to
our east before the colder temperatures arrive, so minimal chances
for snow Saturday night. Readings will eventually bottom out in
the upper 20s to low 30s thanks to some clearing overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A generally quiet end to the weekend will give way to a quiet work
week with upper ridging tracking across the CONUS. The ECMWF does
depict a wave quickly passing through southern Manitoba but keeps
any impacts north of the International border (meanwhile the GFS and
Canadian do not have this feature at all at this time). Therefore, a
dry forecast continues to be appropriate.

Sunday looks to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the
50s following Saturday`s system. For the remainder of the week,
temperatures look to be above average with highs warming into the
60s and lows in the 30s and 40s (possibly even pushing 50 towards
the end of the week).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

TAF sites predominantly VFR. Primary concern for general aviation
continues to be lowering CIGs Saturday afternoon combined with
falling freezing levels. While models continue to indicate VFR
cigs in the 4K to 6K range, freezing levels will drop to 4K to 8K
range and icing will be a primary hazard. See for the latest icing forecasts.




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