Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 092045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Clouds and their impact on temperatures/wind chills will be the
primary challenge for the period.

Clouds have been stubborn to clear out east of the Red River,
although there have been a few holes developing near Fargo and
Lake of the Woods. Some stratus is also starting to ooze into the
far southwestern counties and more clouds are also approaching the
northwest from Canada. There is a fair amount of clearing north of
Winnipeg, however, so how much clouds get down here is very
uncertain. None of the models are handling the current situation
very well, but keep some clearing areas mostly in the west and
south. A bit more clouds in the far northern tier could keep temps
from getting down as far into the -20s, but will still continue to
keep lows in the -20 to -25 range centered around the Cooperstown
area under the center of the surface high. Winds will be
decreasing, but there should be enough to keep wind chills in
criteria. Have a new wind chill advisory starting at 00Z for the
Devils Lake/upper Sheyenne basins, with the headline starting at
03Z further east. Have the advisory going into the Red River
Valley as there should be enough clearing especially this evening.
The eastern edge is less certain, but with some guidance bringing
-15 to -20 temps into Thief River Falls to Greenbush areas, will
include Wilken up through through Roseau counties in the advisory.

After a cold start tomorrow morning, think that temps should
recover to near the zero mark tomorrow. Clouds will be on the
increase, with the a weak shortwave/jet streak approaching the
region. The models continue to keep most of the precip to the
south in SD/southern MN, although the NAM continues to try and
bring heavier precip further north than the other deterministic
models. The GFS has all precip south of us through 00Z Sunday,
with the ECMWF and CMC in between it and the NAM. Will keep the
southern counties dry through 18Z, but have precip ramping up
into the afternoon. The precip and moisture coming up from the
south will be running up against the surface high to the
northeast, so have QPF amounts very light, 0.02 to 0.03 at most
and snow will be less than 0.5 inch in the southern counties for
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Saturday night to Friday...overall high confidence with the forecast
as models in good agreement and consistent with the general
evolution of the upper air pattern across the northern plains for
much of the period. Period starts with a weak wave and light snow
ongoing on Sunday with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of snow along
and south of HWY 2 corridor lighter snows to the north mostly before
noon with a few lingering flakes into the afternoon. Temperatures in
the single digits in Devils Lake basin on Sunday with teens for the
rest of the area. Cold front Sunday night into Monday will usher in
the next shot of arctic cold. Highs in the single digits above and
below zero Tuesday and onward with lows regularly in the negative
single digits and teens as northwest flow aloft brings down another
arctic airmass into the Dakotas for mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

MVFR cloud deck over the Red River Valley and western MN has been
slow to move east, although skies just finally started to clear at
KFAR in the last half an hour. Have KGFK going VFR for a short
time this evening, but think the eastern two TAF sites will
remain MVFR throughout the period. With more clouds coming down
out of Canada even KDVL`s VFR status is in question later on this
evening and into the overnight. Leaned towards the more
pessimistic guidance and have all sites going MVFR towards the
early morning hours. The western TAF sites should see some
recovery to VFR by mid day tomorrow. Winds be out of the west
northwest at 8 to 12 this afternoon but will become light and
variable overnight.




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