Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250239
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Have been monitoring freezing drizzle potential in the
Langdon/Cando areas this evening. The Rolla and Langdon airports
came in with light rain with temps at 28 and 30 a short while
ago. Calls up to the sheriff`s offices came up with roads just
being wet with no issues at that time. And just recently, the
precipitation stopped, so it may not be much of a concern any
more. However, the NAM does have some light QPF through 09Z with
the absence of ice crystals in the column (with temps warmer than
-10C). Will be monitoring this area over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Freshened up the weather grids across the region based on latest
radar and obs trends. The Lake of the Woods area has changed over
to rain as low level warm air has lifted northward. Rain has
lingered a bit more in the southeast so increased rain chances in
that area this evening. Otherwise, there may be some light fog in
parts of MN according to the latest guidance. However, believe it
won`t be thick enough to be needed in the weather grids...so will
keep out until guidance/trends show it`s needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The main forecast challenge will be the exiting steady snow in
northwest MN late this afternoon. Radar is showing the echoes
shifting up into areas along the Canadian border, where low level
radar coverage may not pick up the echoes as well. As the area of
pcpn moves up toward the Lake of the Woods, temps are a little
warmer too, so the threat of heavier accumulating snow should
end. Will wait until after 330 pm to see if the current advisory
needs to be extended in time at all, but at this point the end
time looks good. There may still be some light snow from Roseau to
Baudette after the advisory expires, but not with rates enough to
cause issues on roads. Thereafter, as the low continues to shift
east tonight, the pcpn will slowly end from west to east. Think
most of the pcpn should be done by midnight. North winds will
encompass the entire FA, and temps will drop in areas that were
warmer today. For the most part, Tuesday should be dry with gusty
north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The active pattern continues as an upper wave traverses across the
Northern Plains midweek. The best forcing and chances for
precipitation for Tuesday night and Wednesday look to be along and
ahead of an inverted trough extending from surface low pressure
propagating across the Midwestern states. Therefore, models are in
pretty good agreement with the eastern half of our area seeing the
most impacts (mainly east of the Red River). Temperatures look to
point to mostly frozen precipitation for far northwestern Minnesota
with more mixing (or even a bit of snow accumulation) further south
into west central Minnesota.

By the second half of the week, models begin to diverge a bit more
on their solutions. The GFS continues to bring quieter conditions
and upper ridging to the area while the 12z ECMWF has trended
towards the 00z Canadian with an upper low wrapping up and tracking
northward across the eastern half of the area. Model blended low end
PoPs for this time period across eastern portions of the area seem
appropriate with precipitation chances not quite nil.

The first half of the weekend looks relatively quiet before yet
another chance of precipitation arrives Sunday and lingers into the
new work week.

It`ll be awhile before it feels like spring again as temperatures
will remain well below average through much of the period (highs in
the 40s warming into the 50s by next week and lows in the upper
20s/low 30s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Ceilings are lowering across much of the area this evening on the
back side of a low pressure center that is exiting the region.
These cigs will likely be < 1000 ft much of the night, with BJI
likely dropping below 1000 after midnight. Don`t believe they will
be much below 300 ft however due to reasonable mixing.
Visibilities will be the lowest in the BJI area and south to
DTL/PKD tonight....but still only then will it be in the 1-3 mile
range based on the latest model data. Conditions will be slow to
improve on Tuesday morning...with IFR cigs improving to MVFR by
around noon local time.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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