000
FXUS63 KFGF 202049
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.

FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT KDVL BUT KGFK/KTVF WILL STILL
SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY EAST-NE WINDS. KBJI AND KFAR WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FOR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TOUGH TO CALL BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS
WET. WILL STICK WITH STEADY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS. CLOUD HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE INCREASING A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...WJB