Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. CU IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BREAKING UP AND
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AROUND SUNSET. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKY CURRENT
LOWS LOOKING GOOD WITH AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 30S. IF DECOUPLING OCCURS EARLY...SOME AREAS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S LOCALLY...BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 32.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOP AND TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST AREAS...AT LEAST INTO THE
MID 60S FOR THE COOLER AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND
DRY.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THOUGH WITH PWATS RISING TO JUST OVER 0.70. THERE WILL BE
SHOWALTERS APPROACHING ZERO...SO SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER ATTM WITH COVERAGE VERY LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND AS SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 50 IN THE FAR NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...EVEN
MIXING WITH A FLAKE OR 2.

FOR TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM COOL READINGS ON MONDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING PRETTY ACTIVE
OVERALL. THE 500MB RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT WAVE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS FORM KIND OF A HYBRID SFC LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SLOWLY TRACK IT EASTWARD THRU ABOUT FRI.
NOT A VERY FAST MOVER WITH THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT ALL MODELS SEEM TO SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. DETAILS WOULD BE THUNDER POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS
COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
AFTER STARTING OUT WED/THU NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TAKE A DOWNWARD SWING
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AT SUNSET LEAVING A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE A BIT SUN AFTN TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT THRU 18Z SUN THETN SOME CIRRUS INCREASE SUN
AFTN. THICKER CLOUDS AND RISK OF SHOWERS ARRIVE AFTER 00Z MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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