Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
310 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Pretty quiet night expected, with not much cloud cover and fairly
light winds. South winds pick up a little on Saturday, with
increasing clouds throughout the day. Models remain in pretty good
agreement with the Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning snow
event, with the main impacts still being further east and south of
this FA. Even so, still expect snow totals of 3 to 5 inches across
the far southern Red River Valley into portions of west central
Minnesota. This is not too much different from last night`s
snowfall. Also similar is the lack of much wind while the snow is

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The steadiest snow will slowly transition from south to north
Saturday night. Wind speeds still look to remain on the lower
side, so blowing and drifting snow should not be an impact.

Diminishing snow and calmer weather are expected for Sunday as the
low pressure system moves off into the Great Lakes region. Surface
high pressure is expected to build across the Northern Plains Sunday
afternoon. Moderate pressure rises will lead to 10 to 15 knots winds
and wind gusts up to 25 knots. This could lead to a little drifting
snow across northeast North Dakota, but no major impacts are

Zonal flow aloft is expected for the first half of the week. This
will allow for weak shortwave troughs to propagate through the
region on Monday and bring light snow chances along the
international border, though no major winter weather impacts are

By mid week a more robust upper level wave will eject into the
Central Plains and induce cyclogenesis along a weak baroclinic zone
across the Plains. While the brunt of this storm is expected to
remain well to our south, precipitation in the deformation zone may
extend as far north as east central North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota. However, confidence in this snow is low at this time due
to notable difference in deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Upper level ridging will follow the passage of this trough and bring
calmer weather for the rest of the week.

Temperatures for the late weekend and into early next week will
remain normal to just above normal with afternoon highs in the upper
20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the low teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

There were some lower clouds northwest of KDVL, but these have
been dissipating this afternoon. There are still a few lower
clouds around KBJI, but these are moving to the ESE and should be
out of that area shortly. The rest of the TAF period looks pretty


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NDZ052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ017.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ023-024-027-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MNZ029.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ031.



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