Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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979
FXUS63 KFGF 030835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AS WELL...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH TO THE
TUNE OF 20-25 MPH. THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN THE REGION
AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE WEST SLOWLY WEST SEEING THE
WARMEST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE 850 MB TEMPS WILL
SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY TO START THE
PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20C. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR -RA/TSRA.
THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING OF FROPA AND WSHFT FROM SW-W TO NORTH AND INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR ABOVE CHANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY MINIMA SETTLING NEAR 20 TO 25
PERCENT TUE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE FWW
FOR VALLEY COUNTIES OF MN FROM POLK SOUTHWARD AS RFW CRITERIA MAY BE
REACHED THERE. WORDING FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE INCLUDED
FOR ND IN THE UPCOMING FWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>003-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...WJB



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