Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 953 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Fairly light wind speeds are expected today with quite a bit of
cloud cover. There are a few breaks in the clouds, mainly
southeast of Fergus Falls, but these also appear to be filling
back in. Models still showing some decrease in the clouds across
the western FA by later in the day. Will watch and see how this
progresses through the rest of the morning. Other than some minor
adjustments to match clouds trends with current conditions, the
forecast remains in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Main challenges will low end pcpn chances and temperatures. Short
wave over SE Sask will drop through the fa today. Some guidance
showing potential for isolated showers mainly over eastern ND however
feature will be riding over surface high pressure and with
precipitable water values less than a half inch will keep
forecast dry. Farther NE high resolution model guidance continue
to show pcpn streamers from the MB lakes which could clip the lake
of the woods area so will maintain inherited pops. A fair amount
of cloud cover associated with the Sask wave so temperatures not
likely to recover a great deal.

Return flow and warm advection will hold temperatures up in the
30s most areas tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

As mid level troughing shifts east region comes under more zonal
flow. The next wave and associated surface boundary will track
east across the FA Friday. Best upper support and deeper layered
rh will be across the north so limiting pops to the north seems
reasonable. Thermal ridge axis shifts over the fa during the day
and low level westerly flow may combine with solar to allow
temperatures to recover above average with cooler readings farther

Weak surface ridge builds over the fa Saturday with temperatures
at or above average.

The next wave moves in Saturday night with the best chances for
pcpn again across the far north although models off on timing and
surface low track at this point. Minimum temperatures will be
mild, around 40 most areas.

Sunday-Wednesday...Models indicate a shortwave trough quickly
transiting the area on Sunday with the potential for a few showers,
mainly across the north, before an upper ridge amplifies over the
central US early next week, keeping temps seasonably mild. By Tue-
Wed, 00Z global models indicate a few shortwaves may eject into the
plains from a broad upper trough off the Pacific coast. Current runs
show a fairly progressive and disorganized low pressure trough
crossing the area, but run to run continuity has been poor with
respect to intensity and placement of the system. For now, will
continue to trend towards increasing shower chances by late in the
period, especially across southern/eastern counties, with a
seasonably mild/moist air mass in place ahead of the system.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Area of mainly low VFR cigs over spreading the region and likely
to hold until later this afternoon when wave passes. Clouds should
be scattering out late this afternoon from west to east. Light
winds expected.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Makowski/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.