Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WINDS ARE THE ISSUE THIS EVENING. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z. WITH THE SETTING SUN THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING INVERSION BUT STILL ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTY ALL
NIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER WITH SOME AREAS OF
ERN ND STAYING ABOVE 50. SECOND ISSUE IS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 850 MB INSTABILITY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ND 09Z-12Z PERIOD. MOISTURE INITIALLY QUITE WEAK BUT PWATS
DO GO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 12Z IN THE RRV. MAIN FORCING AT THE SFC WEST
OF THE FCST AREA BUT NAM/GFS DO SO MUCAPES IN THE 500-700 J/KG
RANGE WITH NAM AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 12Z WED IN THE RRV. ALSO SEEING
A BAND OF 50 DEW PTS IN WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA LIKELY HEADED
FOR ERN ND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THIS 50 DEW PT AREA THERE WAS
SOME LOW CLOUDS. UNSURE IF THAT WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA 12Z WED BUT
NONETHELESS CONDITIONS SET UP ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT IN PARTS OF ERN ND SPREADING INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THRU 18Z AS INSTABILITY RIBBON
(SHOWWALTERS IN THE -2C RANGE) MOVES INTO WRN MN. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLD T INTO EARLY AFTN FOR FAR ERN FCST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE MOVING THRU. COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES YIELDED A BIT
FASTER SOLN THAN ECMWF AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE EASTERN
FCST AREA NR 06Z THU.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST SITES UNDER ONE
QUARTER INCH...THOUGH HEAVIER TOTALS APPROACHING ONE HALF INCH
PSBL IN WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN ZONE FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI MAINLY
WED MID TO LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEARING WILL WORK IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN
WEST. ANY 850 MB COOLING WILL BE NEGATED BY A FAVORABLE WEST WIND
WHICH IS GOOD FOR WARM SFC TEMPS. THUS NO COOLING EXPECTED FOR
THU. WEST WIND AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN CHC PCPN MONDAY/TUESDAY AS 500MB RIDGING
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH STRONG FROPA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDY MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS MORNING SO
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






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