Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231203
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Area of showers from northwestern SD moving to the Bismarck area
and will continue moving northeast thru the morning. It appears
from SPC meso page the frontogenetical band is a tad south of
where the GFS/NAM would indicate...but just by a small distance.
Overall idea of this area of showers moving toward east central ND
today is good and also idea of showers developing northward in
low level warm/moist advection in west central MN later this
aftn/eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Main issue today is rain chances. Short wave moving northeast thru
far eastern Idaho and western Wyoming out and away from the main
500 mb low near Las Vegas early this morning. This short wave will
move northeast and east into southern ND thru the morning-midday
and into central MN late today. Area of showers concentrated in NW
SD and SE MT. Even a few lightning strikes north of Rapid City at
08z. Issue is coverage of rain showers. Most short range models
have a band of showers from SE MT into central ND thru mid morning
and then reaching in a arc toward Grand Forks by 18z. The SD
activity is progged to stay more south and move thru SD and then
expand in coverage over west central MN later this aftn/eve. Pops
followed this idea with a big higher pops central ND into east
central ND (GFK) and then second area of higher pops mainly this
aftn/eve wcntrl MN adjacent to WFO MPX. In between coverage may
not be as great. But later udpates can fine tune pops as needed.

There is a narrow band of mid level frontogenesis with the
northern band of precip toward GFK today. Short range models do
indicate a very narrow zone of 0.10 to 0.20 inch qpf with this
rain band possibly. But it will be in a narrow zone. Attm stuck
with superblend qpf which was closer to 0.10. Either way not a
signifcant issue in terms of any flooding concerns.

Temps expected to be 35 or higher in precip event so kept it
mostly liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Rain chances Friday will settle south of our region into southern
MN. Clearing will work south and expect some sun to return esp
northern areas with a north wind. A bit cool yet on Friday due to
a north wind. Dry Saturday north of a large upper low in the
southern/central Plains. Warmer as well as winds turn southeast
and 925 mb temps rise.

Sunday to Wednesday...The overall pattern continues to be
progressive with an active 500mb flow across North America with
the stronger and moisture laden systems crossing the Central and
Southern Plains. The result for the Northern Plains will have an
overall dry period with daily max temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s and lows near 30, which is above the end of March
normals. There will be a low chance for light rain on Sunday as a
northern stream short wave moves across southern Canada. Monday
through Wednesday will see 500mb ridging with the next potent wave
cutting off across the desert southwest and moving into the
Southern Plains by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Clouds will thicken up from the southwest with mostly mid clouds
thru 18z. Will watch the possibility of lower clouds developing to
our south and moving into SE ND & WC MN late aftn/eve. Unsure how
low...but very short range models indicate MVFR a good bet with
risk of IFR. I didnt go IFR yet as that seems a bit too low when
comparing to GFS/MET MOS output.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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