Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260028
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STAGNANT WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN KGFK AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THE
FZDZ TO THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. IT IS NOT STEADY AND IS VERY LIGHT
SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY TRAVEL ISSUES. THERE ARE
SOME CLEAR HOLES UP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SE...SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR THESE GET TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD AIR OVER SASK WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND FRI AND
BRUSH THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPERED FRI NIGHT AND SAT OR AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAN AND ONTARIO SAT AND SUN AND IN ITS WAKE WILL
SEND THE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RADAR SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW REPORTS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL ADD FLURRIES FOR THIS EVENING. 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED OVER SD AND THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FRI MORN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 500 HPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY WEDGE SHIFTS SOUTH FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
WILL LOWER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BUT WILL BE VERY LOW
QPF.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY RAISED A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND SAT AND
DECREASE A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MID RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN 1050-1060
MB DESCENDING UPON NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL EFFICIENTLY KEEP PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPRESSING IT OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO CENTRAL PLAINS. LACK OF/MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
FIGURING OUT TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES PLUNGING TO NEAR THE 500 DM MARK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WOULD SUGGEST NEAR ZERO TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
BIAS CORRECTED TEMP GRIDS ARE TRENDING WARMER SEEMINGLY ADJUSTING TO
LACK OF SNOW COVER WHICH WOULD BE INCLUDED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE GRIDDED/STATISTICAL OUTPUT. FORECAST STILL HAS SOME MARGINALLY
SUB ZERO HIGHS ALONG NORTHERN TIER MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MID AND
UPPER TEENS BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS TO ADDRESS SHORT WAVE TO RING IN THE NEW
YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AN END OF WEEK COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

STUCK WITH STATUS QUO IN THE TAFS...PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU HAVE NOW
YOU WILL HAVE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW
SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO THE KDVL REGION FRI AFTERNOON SO DID
SCATTER THINGS OUT AT KDVL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT FZDZ ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. NO METAR SITES SEEM TO BE
PICKING UP ON IT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...GODON





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