Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Rain area has filled in across most of the FA. Only spots not
seeing rain at the moment are from KCKN to KBJI and across the far
south. Most areas will now see a steady 0.25 or so of rain thru
the afternoon. Lots of cloud cover over northeast SD, so at this
point not expecting too much additional pcpn development later
this afternoon. Some of the high resolution models show some weak
development around and south of KBIS, which tries to move east
early this evening. Will look more at with the next forecast
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a trough from eastern WY into eastern CO
and was moving to the northeast about 40 knots. Some
drying/darkening was noted over eastern WY/eastern CO. Short wave
ridging east of trough was returning moisture northward. Band of
precipitable water over an inch and a quarter forecast to rotate
northward through the forecast area through 00z Thu.

Coupled upper level jet was over the area with jet over southern
Canada and a southwesterly jet nosing into southeast ND by 18z Wed.
Coupled area shifts into Ontario this evening with respectable upper
level divergence. Precip basically falls under the 700 hpa theta-e
ridge. Water column then dries out tonight and Thu. Precipitable
water increases again for Fri/Fri night as upper low off the
southern CA coast moves out into the plains of NE. Concurrently an
upper trough over western MT will move into northern ND/southern MAN
Fri/Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...The wet pattern will continue with
several troughs moving through the Northern Plains. The first will
lift from the Central Plains into Minnesota on Saturday, and another
large trough coming in from the Rockies on Tuesday. In between, west
to southwesterly flow will prevail over the Northern Plains and any
of the weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precip. Blended
solution gives fairly high POPs throughout the period, with some
slight decrease down to 15ish percent Sunday night and Monday at the
driest. Given the pattern see little reason to change that wet
solution at this point. Temperatures will continue to be mostly
above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

MVFR cigs will accompany thunderstorms and, later in the day, light
rain showers, as a wave of showers and storms works its way from
south to north across the region.  Areas behind the precipitation
may continue to see some very light rain and cigs dropping into MVFR
tonight, but unless breaks in the sky occur before sun down, the
threat for TS is diminishing for the overnight period. Will keep
mention of CB in most sites through 02Z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher


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