Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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536
FXUS63 KFGF 161801
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

CLOUDS REALLY HOLDING TEMPS DOWN...SO UPDATED TO KNOCK DOWN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ONLY PCPN OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FA...MOVING NNE. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER IT SHOULD AFFECT THE
KFFM/WADENA/KPKD AREAS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH
ANYWHERE ELSE. ELIMINATED PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH/NE AND
KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME SHOWER/THUNDER INCREASE AFTER 21Z OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. VORTICITY LOBES WERE ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM. UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN. SYSTEM
CONTINUES EAST INTO ONTARIO MON NIGHT AND OPENS UP.

700 HPA THETA-E GRAD MOVES NORTH THIS MORNING.  MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES RISE UP TO AROUND 1100 J/KG IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE ARE IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAIN UPPER LOW/JET STREAK TO MOVE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND SHOULD
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

COLDER AIR MOVES ON WEST AND SO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. THE NW FLOW LOFT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE DAILY FROM HIGHS ON TUESDAY OF LOW TO
MID 50S TO NEAR 70 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TOUGH FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS.  A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE MVFR AND IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD.  WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SUNDAY...BUT TURN MORE NORTHEAST DEVILS LAKE AREA 12Z SUNDAY AND
AFTER AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS SURFACE LOW IS NEAR FARGO SUNDAY
MIDDAY.  IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.  HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN COVERAGE
AND TIMING.  SO FOR THE TIME BEING USED VCTS IN MOST TAFS IN THAT
22Z-04Z PERIOD...AND OVERNIGHT ALL BUT DEVILS LAKE MAY BE IN DRY
SLOT SO UNSURE OF COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH.  MAIN RAIN AREA TO MOVE IN
SUNDAY LATER MORNING AND AFTERWARDS...EXCEPT FOR DVL BASIN WHERE
MAIN RAIN WILL MOVE IN DAWN SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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