Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER





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