000
FXUS63 KFGF 131139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING AND ITS COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

TODAY...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER AND RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWFA. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WIND AHEAD OF RIDGE AXIS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. AS AXIS PASSES BY SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOME
HIGH CIRRUS BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE 500MB RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON.
GOOD SOLAR WILL HAVE TEMPS APPROACHING 80 ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MARGINAL MLCAPE EXISTS AND MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT... POSSIBLY THOUGH NOT LIKELY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS OUTRUN INSTABILITY. SHOWER AND
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 500MB SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST AND COINCIDES WITH MLCAPES 500 TO 1400 J/KG
ALIGNED ACROSS CNTRL ND BY 00Z SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SVR WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST MLCAPES LIE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWFA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40KTS DOES ALSO SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ND AND WILL BE MOVING INTO NW MN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP AS SYSTEM OCCLUDES IN
SASKATCHEWAN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND STABILIZING THE LOW LEVELS
SATURDAY. HIGHS SEASONABLE WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
WETTER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM MANITOBA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL
ALOFT ON MONDAY TO ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP EVEN UNDER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SO KEPT LOW POPS GOING. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE WARMING BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THUS...KEPT POPS GOING ALTHOUGH CUT BACK A BIT ON
WHAT ALLBLEND GIVES US FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM AS THE TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK