Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 312038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM BAUDETTE TO WAHPETON AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. THE FRONT WILL BASICALLY WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS WINDS
TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A BAND
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL SD IS EXTENDING INTO FAR SE ND
AND CONTAINS SOME SPRINKLES. COORD WITH BIS/ABR AND ADDED ISOLD
RW- TO FAR SRN RRV INTO THE EVE. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR DVL
BASIN AND GRADUAL CLEARING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS LESS
HUMID THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS STILL
INDICATE A PUSH OF 850 MB INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY NRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SO KEPT
IDEA OF LOW TSTM CHANCES.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

RISK OF EARLY WEDNESDAY T-STORMS IN PARTS OF FAR NW MN...OTHERWISE
WARM AND MUCH MORE HUMID ON WEDENSDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S REGION WIDE WITH SOME
LOWER 90S WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS IN THE PAST FEW WARM
OUTBREAKS...WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY DEVILS LAKE BASIN-LANGDON REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN
TO BETWEEN GFK AND FAR. CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING TO THE EAST ABOUT 20
KNOTS. ALSO A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND EXTENDED
ROUGHLY FROM EAST OF HCO TO EAST OF VALLEY CITY ND. EXPECTED MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST/WEST AT 15 TO 30 MPH. SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
AREA AND CLEARING WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN WAS OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-
AMPLIFIES AND THE FLOW BECOMES QUITE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE
TWO MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE BY SUN WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER
SOLUTION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. UNSETTLED WEATHER
FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI THROUGH MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES



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