Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 111800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

NO FURTHER CHANGES. SPOTTY SHOWERS...NOW MOST LOCATED IN BISMARCK-
GRAFTON-HALLOCK REGION. HIGHS LOOKING OK WITH MAX IN THE MID 50S
IN THE RRV.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

500 MB TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS MOVING THRU FCST AREA AND THE COLD
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED SMALL SHOWERS TO
FORM. THUS ADDED 20 POPS AND ISOLD SHOWERS TO ALL FCST AREA. HAD
SLEET REPORTED IN BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 11-1130 AM. ATTM FEEL
WITH TEMPS WARMING A BIT MORE AT THE SFC SLEET WILL BE MINIMAL SO
DIDNT ADD TO GRIDS. LIKELY NEED FROST HEADLINES MOST IF NOT ALL
FCST AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES/FROST POTENTIAL AND LOW
END RAIN CHANCES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FA DURING THE EARLY AM. AM GETTING SOME
SURFACE CONTACT SO WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF SOME EARLY SPRINKLE
MENTION IS NECESSARY. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40S AND WITH DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 32 WILL
BE CANCELING FROST ADVISORY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
AS CLOUDS PRETTY WIDESPREAD. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL. MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. GFS
INDICATING MOIST LAYER AOB 800 MB AND WITH TROUGH IN VCNTY NOT
SOLD THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS.

FOR FRIDAY WEAK S-SW SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MODEL TIME SECTION
SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOLAR. IF SO AFTER COOL
START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION STARTS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING FROM 06-12Z TIME
FRAME FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN FA.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BUT STILL BLO AVERAGE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE CROSSES FA SATURDAY NIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS.

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE TO BRING A CHC OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY TO NW MN...THEREAFTER A DRY FORECAST AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION UNDER CONFLUENT AND RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM LOW 60S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY TO LOW 70S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS TODAY
WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIGHT RASN
SHOWERS IN N CNTRL MN. MOST CLOUD COVER LOOKS CELLULAR AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFT SUN DOWN...SO WILL KEEP RASN MENTION IN AT BJI
THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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