Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LOW TEMP FOR TONIGHT. INCREASED LOW TEMPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DECREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH. FOG LOOP INDICATED A
FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MAN WHICH DELAY SOME CLEARING IN
THE NORTH. SKY CONDITIONS TWEAKED. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE SINCE LAST
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN ND AND
ALONG THE MAN/ONTARIO BORDER AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST 30-35 KNOTS.
RADAR INDICATED LIGHT SNOW OVER GRAND FORKS, TRAILL, AND NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
VERY LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATED FOR LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SHOULD CREATE ANOTHER DUSTING OF
SNOW THAT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS...INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA BUT STAYED WITH LOW QPF
VALUES ATTM...WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH. DRIER AIR
SHOULD HELP CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH. WITH THE COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AND SCATTERING
SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE AREA AROUND LANGDON AND CAVALIER TO
DIP AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THAT AREA WILL
DIP TO AROUND 25 BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO WILL
MENTION IN A SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR NOW.

ON SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKING SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR 10 ABOVE WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH VALUES
APPROACHING 20 BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WITH
ARGUABLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 BELOW IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TO 25 BELOW IN LAKES COUNTRY. THUS...WENT WITH A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING SUNDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LOW WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NEW YEARS EVE WILL FIND THE NATION
IN A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW REGIME FEATURING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS PROPAGATES THIS LOW TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY
THAN ECMWF WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RESPOND TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES FOR WED/THU AFTER THE EARLY
WEEK ARCTIC COLD. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BRANCH
FOR LATE THUR/FRI WILL PROVIDE MINOR -SN CHANCES AS MORE POTENT
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. BACK HOME LOOK FOR ANOTHER
COOLDOWN DURING FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW -20C COINCIDENT WITH 495-505 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM 15
HUNDRED TO 30 HUNDRED FT MOST PLACES. CIGS 7 TO 9 THOUSAND FT WERE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE FAR NORTHEAST. EXPECT LOWER CIGS
TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLEARING WAS LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAN/SASK AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR NDZ053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...WJB/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPPES



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