Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 060543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU NW MN AND THE RRV LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WIND
AHD OF SYSTEM KEEPING TEMPS UP IN ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FCST AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE WEST BEHIND IT AND UPSTREAM
TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD SO DID RAISE TEMPS A BIT. BUT ON THE
OTHER HAND DO EXPECT SOME DROP IN TEMPS LATE TONIGHT/SUNRISE AS
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECOUPLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES. THE EXPECTED AIRMASS TEMPERATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW ANTICIPATED...BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE (LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
-SN WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
WAVE EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TAKES A BREAK FOR A
WHILE DURING THE NEXT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD SCALE SW PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. POLAR JET REMAINS LOCKED UP IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPING SURFACE SYSTEMS AND PCPN WITH IT. DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE
FROM DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WITH HINT OF A WAVE OR BACK DOOR TYPE COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY MORE OF AN EAST SFC WIND FOR THURS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40S FIRST 3 DAYS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
THE END IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. EARLIER GFS RUNS THAT WERE
MARKEDLY COLDER THAN CORRESPONDING ECMWF ARE NOW TRENDING WARMER
WITH BOTH GUIDANCE SUITES INDICATING HIGHEST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE
PLUS 6 TO 10C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE RRV INTO NW MN AHEAD OF SFC
TROUGH WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BAND OF MID CLUOUDS FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL. OVER THE DVL BASIN BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION MAY SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THRU FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT. INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN...SOME STRATOCU PSBL ESP NE ND/NW MN AFTER 00Z SAT. -SN PSBL
BUT MORE SO IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE.

 &&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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