Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171421
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
921 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Will keep monitoring day to day fire weather concerns, mainly
  across the southern half of the FA, especially Monday.

- There is a 30 percent chance of minor winter impacts due to
  accumulating snow on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Convective streamers are present on the Mayville radar this
morning, mainly within the Red River Valley, but they do extend
a little further east and west of that. Went ahead and changed
the forecast to a high pop/low QPF event, with snow showers
being the weather type wording. As these elements pass over the
office here in Grand Forks, the flakes have been huge. Plus
enough of them are falling that the visibility quickly plunges.
The sidewalks around the office have picked up another dusting.
This will continue through at least the noon hour. There is
clearing upstream in southern Manitoba, so there may be some
hope of seeing the sun by the afternoon.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Clouds and flurries persist and they will persist thru the
morning. Clouds thru the day and probably flurries as well.
Winds and temps are looking good.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A windy and cold day today with highs in the 20s. Expect cloudy
skies as 850 mb moisture remains west of the upper low which is
slowly departing to the east. Clearing not likely to work in
until tonight, and more so after midnight as surface high moves
in. Went scattered flurries all areas thru 18z and may need to
have then thru 00z. Think the convective aspect of the light
snow bands will diminish and more of a 7 to 15SM -sn areas thru
the morning. Winds to be not quite as strong as Saturday but
still noticeable.

Sfc high to bring light winds overnight and will be in SE ND
into NW MN at 12z Mon. This high will move east Monday as warm
advection at sfc-850 mb moves east into E ND to the southwest of
an additional short wave moving thru NW Ontario. Tight temp
gradient Monday from potential 50-55 far west fcst area (Devils
Lake) to mid 30s east (Baudette-Bemidji-Park Rapids). Airmass
quite dry and there will be an area of RH values blo 30 pct in
west central MN but winds also not as strong as NE ND where
southwest winds will pick up in warm advection.

Front to drop south Monday night and north-northwest winds into
Tuesday. Highs mostly 30s Tuesday and 20s Wednesday as colder
air moves back in. High pressure will be moving into central
Canada.

Meanwhile mid week will see 500 mb pattern evolve as the deeper
trough over Ontario moves east and flow is more west-northwest.
Meanwhile 500 trough starts to develop off the Washington and
British Columbia coast. A short wave from this trough will move
into Washington state and southeast BC Wednesday and then likely
track east-southeast thru S Alberta, northern Montana and then
across west central and southern ND and into central MN Thursday
time frame. Sfc low with this will track south of upper wave
with 850 mb low and baroclinic zone in between with that looking
to set up from west central into south central ND and far
northeast SD, west central MN, far southeast ND going into
Thursday. Frontogenetic forcing via GFS looks quite strong in
the 850-700 mb layer for about a 6 hour period along with period
of 850 mb warm advection. Focus of this is in the 15-21z period
Thursday. Probs for more than 2 inches are 60 percent in this
area for 00z Thu-00z Fri and 30 percent for more than 4 inches
per NBM 4.1.

As we head into the weekend and early next week....signals point
to a potential large storm system developing over the northern
and central plains. How this evolves is extremely uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The ceilings today are going to be borderline MVFR to IFR
throughout the day. 06z Monday the winds will start to shift
from a northerly component to a westerly component as a front
moves east. Behind the front the winds will be from the
southwest. This front is expected to start dissipating cloud
cover as well. The winds should start to die down by this
evening. There`s uncertainty with the intermittent flurries.
Best guess is that we might be completely done with the flurries
around 22-23z for the TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...MM


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