Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 658 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Radar indicated the trailing edge of light snow from near BDE to
CKN to Red Willow Lake ND. Another patch of light snow/flurries
near HCO. Precip was moving to the southeast around 30 knots. No
other changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Water vapor loop an upper level trough over southeast MT/WY border
and was moving to the south/southeast around 50 knots. Short wave
producing weak returns mostly western ND and the far western
zones. Another short wave was located over southern MAN also
moving south. The short was also producing weak returns over the
northern Red River Valley and will move across the forecast area
this morning. Radar showed weak returns over the northwest half of
the valley and was moving to the southeast about 40 knots. Will
add flurries for this morning. Very light snow is expected over
the far northeast zones this morning.

Another short wave was located over the Northwest Territories and
was moving to the south. Short wave may brush the northeast zones
this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Friday-Saturday...A pattern change is expected as the northerly flow
aloft becomes more zonal. As this occurs deep warm air advection
snowfall along the baroclinic zone will bring snowfall to the
majority of the region (except possibly southeast North Dakota).
Upper level support is lacking and believe most model guidance is in
the ballpark with their QPF output. Given the type of forcing (warm
air advection), snow ratio values should be toward the lower end of
the spectrum (10:1 to 14:1). The main story will be a prolonged
period of light snow with total accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Winds
will be light, so impacts will be limited. Forcing ends by Saturday

Sunday-Wednesday...With zonal flow set up, a stronger system will be
propagating across central Canada during the early work week period. A
surface trough extending from this system will bring a chance for
precipitation to mainly the northern FA on Monday (likely snow,
trace amounts). Then, a cold front will bring windy conditions
Monday night/Tuesday. There may be some blowing snow impacts with
this wind (depending on how much snow falls prior), although
temperatures on Monday may approach or exceed the freezing mark, so
impacts may be limited. Watching the potential for a stronger system
mid-late week, but details very uncertain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

IFR cigs were located over much of the MN side of the Red River.
MVFR conditions were located over much of eastern ND. Expect MVFR
to VFR conditions by late morning into the afternoon on the ND
side. Expect cigs to go back down tonight over much of the Red
River Valley to MVFR to IFR conditions.




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