Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201841
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Band of returns over the NE FA lining up well with zone of deeper
layered rh in warm conveyer belt from water vapor loop and high
resolution short range model solutions. Feature to continue to
lift northward as upper low over the dakotas lifts north. Within
this band could see heavier drizzle or -ra/sn mix through the
afternoon. Elsewhere just enough fog continue mention of some -zl.
Made some minor pop adjustments otherwise forecast in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Icy roadways to our east with more significant zl/-ra but so far
no reports from our forecast area but will continue to monitor.
HRRR indicating deeper layered RH favorable for more significant
light pcpn just to our east lining up well with above reports. No
changes necessary to current forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Temperatures not expected to change much through the day. Dewpoint
depressions were small and are expected to remain that way today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over eastern SD. Upper low
will move north then northwest today and tonight. Radar indicated a
band of rain over central MN moving northwest. rain is expected
mainly over northwest MN for today then lift north tonight.
Elsewhere very light rain or drizzle can be expected.

Another upper level trough on the water vapor loop was indicated
over the TX panhandle. Upper trough will move into the Northern
Plains Sat and more or less park over area. Upper low will produce
light precipitation over the forecast area Sat through late Sun
night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Monday through Thursday...The upper trough will lift off into
western Ontario, although models are all in fairly good agreement on
some light precipitation lingering over northwestern MN. Temps will
range from the 20s to mid 30s, so kept it a snow/freezing
drizzle/drizzle mix. Another upper low will move across the Central
Plains into into IA and southern MN on Tuesday. The GFS continues to
clip the southern counties although the ECMWF has decent QPF further
south, so will keep 20-30 POPs going for near the SD border. After
the southern system moves by a shortwave trough digs down out of
Canada, bringing a slight chance for some light snow and a bit of
colder air down into the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Even with
the cold air advection the arriving air mass is not frigid, so
continue to think that temperatures will remain above seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Other than a small area of mvfr cigs over the NE FA IFR cigs to
continue through the period. VSBY varies quite a bit across the Fa
from a quarter mile to p6sm. Taf forecast sites generally in the
MVFR-VFr range and expect that to continue with some lowering
possible tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Voelker


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