Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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912
FXUS63 KFGF 110535
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE CLEAR WEDGE MOVED SOUTH AND ENCOMPASSED THE KDVL AREA AND IS
NEARING KFAR TOO. UNDER THIS CLEARING TEMPS QUICKLY PLUMMETED
FROM LANDGON TO HALLOCK TO -5 TO -10F. STARTING TO SEE SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MASKING THE LOWER ONES SO HOPEFULLY NO OTHER
AREAS WILL DROP LIKE THE LANGDON AREA. KBDE REMAINS THE COLD SPOT
AT -20...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THERE TOO. HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPS...ALL DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CHALLENGE THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING ONGOING. DID ADD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOUDS AS A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR HOW FAR TEMPS FALL OFF FOR LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM MODEL RH
FIELDS AND AVIATION CIG GUIDANCE IS THAT A SIMILAR CLOUD TREND
WILL OCCUR AS LAST NIGHT. EVENING CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING A LANGDON TO CROOKSTON TO PARK RAPIDS
LINE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. NW MN
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR
COLDER...BDE AT MINUS 23 THIS MORNING...TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN
AREAS UNDER THE CLOUDS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME WILL SEE THE SAME...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
POSSIBLY SOME SUN EAST. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF -SN IN THE FAR SW
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM. NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
IMPRESSIVE 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ARCTIC COLD TEMPS
PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH 925MB TEMPS
IN THE 20C TO 28C BELOW ZERO AND PWATS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH INDICATING CLEAR SKIES AND THE SFC HIGH CENTER OVER THE
VALLEY BY SAT 12Z...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAY
NEED TO GO COLDER. WARMUP SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...MODELS BRING QPF IN SATURDAY
AFTN...THINKING SE WINDS WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRY AIRMASS
UNDERNEATH PRECIP BAND. DELAYED POPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY FOR THE
VALLEY.

FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WAA ZONE SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW NEARLY ANY DAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT WILL HANDLE THE CLOUDS VERY WELL.
THEREFORE HAVE STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
DRYING WORKS DOWN LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SFC HIGH. KEPT VFR LEVEL CLOUDS AT KDVL TOO...BUT THEY WILL
BE CLOSEST TO SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CLOUDS. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN
PRETTY WEAK UNTIL MAYBE LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN THEY PICK UP TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON



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