Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
639 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

There is some concern tonight that with clear skies/light winds
and a fair amount of low level moisture, there is a decent
potential for fog. Quite a few guidance products do show fog and
low clouds by late night into Sunday morning. There are mid and
high level clouds streaming into the south, so the greater fog
potential is probably along and north of the highway 200 corridor.
Will start by mentioning some patchy fog and see what develops by
mid to late evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

With a split flow pattern over western North America and fairly
flat H5 flow across the northern plains, we can expect our
seasonably mild and dry a conditions to persist through the short
term and beyond.

A winter storm system is just beginning to break out of the
central Rockies of eastern Colorado... on its expected trek
through the Central Plains states. Short range model guidance is
consistent in pulling northern portions of that storm across
southeast SD and southern MN, with precipitation bands staying
well south of our forecast area.

For our area... fair skies overnight should give way to
increasing clouds on Sunday, with thickening lower to middle
level clouds across far southeast ND and west central MN during
the day. light west winds overnight will turn from the northwest
during Sunday forenoon and early afternoon periods as the Central
Plains storm system deepens into the KS/NE borderlands.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to converge on
the solution of having the northern edge of the snow to our
southeast. The newer 12Z NAM run is farther south more like other
models unlike the 06Z NAM which has more snow to the north.
Currently only very light snow possible with the best chances in
Grant County and southeast Ottertail County. With multiple runs
keeping the snow to our southeast and outlier also moving southeast
confidence is high in little or no snow. Some higher winds,
especially in the southern Red River Valley, are still a concern.
With the recent warmer temperatures there is a crust on the snowpack
so falling snow would be needed for blowing snow. With little or no
snow expected, little or no blowing snow is expected.

A weak clipper is still expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. This
clipper could bring a short period of snow as it passes.

The next chance for snow comes late next week as a low develops off
of the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and moves into the Upper
Midwest. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all have the low developing and moving
across the Upper Midwest but disagree on impacts. Ensemble solutions
like the GEFS have a  range of solutions but the mean is in line
with the operational GFS. So while there is a fair amount of
confidence in the occurrence of this storm there is little
confidence in the impacts at this time.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next week.
Highs are generally in the 20s with some warmer air near the end of
the week leading temperatures into the 30s as a upper ridge moves
in. Overnight lows in the upper single digits to teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Like mentioned above in the update section, quite a few guidance
products show fog and low clouds developing late tonight into
Sunday morning. Confidence not too high at this point, since there
are some mid and high clouds streaming into the southern FA. For
now have kept vsbys and ceilings in the lower end of VFR, but if
fog or low clouds do form, both vsbys and ceilings will probably
drop into at least MVFR. Will see what happens by late evening and
adjust the TAFs if necessary.




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